I’m not sure I understand the connection between truth-seeking and polling, unless the specific truth you seek is simply the percentage of people who give a particular answer to a poll. Are you simply talking about a more accurate polling company or using polling to find other truths?
Possibly related: I have a bet going with a reddit-acquaintance; basically, I gave him an upvote, and if x turns out to be true, he donates $1000 to SIAI.
If members of this community have an accurate, well calibrated map, making bets could be a cost-effective way to pump money into SIAI or other non-profits/charities (which signals caring as well as integrity).
Yes, a more accurate polling company; potentially polling on alternative subjects, I also had scientific studies (grant-writing, peer-reviewing) in mind but I have even less idea how that works and how to express what I would actually think about it.
The two examples you linked of bad polling seem to be examples of polling fraud rather than incompetence. It is not that these companies did not understand how to conduct an accurate poll, rather that they don’t appear to have been motivated to do so.
It seems to me that accurate polling is quite a well understood problem. Legitimate polling companies exist that are reasonably good at it. In many cases I don’t think there is much value (from a truth seeking perspective) in the poll data but I think it generally answers the question “what percentage of people give answer Y to question X?” fairly well. That’s just not a very useful piece of data in many cases.
I’m not sure I understand the connection between truth-seeking and polling, unless the specific truth you seek is simply the percentage of people who give a particular answer to a poll. Are you simply talking about a more accurate polling company or using polling to find other truths?
All that, and how does it make money?
Possibly related: I have a bet going with a reddit-acquaintance; basically, I gave him an upvote, and if x turns out to be true, he donates $1000 to SIAI.
If members of this community have an accurate, well calibrated map, making bets could be a cost-effective way to pump money into SIAI or other non-profits/charities (which signals caring as well as integrity).
Is such a thing in the realm of Dark Arts?
Yes, a more accurate polling company; potentially polling on alternative subjects, I also had scientific studies (grant-writing, peer-reviewing) in mind but I have even less idea how that works and how to express what I would actually think about it.
The two examples you linked of bad polling seem to be examples of polling fraud rather than incompetence. It is not that these companies did not understand how to conduct an accurate poll, rather that they don’t appear to have been motivated to do so.
It seems to me that accurate polling is quite a well understood problem. Legitimate polling companies exist that are reasonably good at it. In many cases I don’t think there is much value (from a truth seeking perspective) in the poll data but I think it generally answers the question “what percentage of people give answer Y to question X?” fairly well. That’s just not a very useful piece of data in many cases.