I’m writing this comment after coming up with my probability
level but before reading anyone else’s responses.
Until Yvain’s question, I had not put a number on this. I
suspect if there were a machine that could measure how
confident I “really” am, it would show a higher number.
I spent less than a minute translating from my previous
estimate of “highly confident but not certain” to a
percentage. Things I considered that made the probability
higher:
Every time humans have figured out how something works,
the explanation has been a reductionist one.
The only reason to think that the mind would be an
exception to this is that the mind is unique in other ways
(qualia/subjective experience; free will).
Things I considered that made the probability lower:
The proposition under question could be false for two
different reasons:
ontologically basic mental entities
physical yet non-neurological parts of the mind’s
substrate
I don’t know how the mind works (nor does anyone else), so
I should nudge my probability estimate away from certainty
either way.
I’m writing this comment after coming up with my probability level but before reading anyone else’s responses.
Until Yvain’s question, I had not put a number on this. I suspect if there were a machine that could measure how confident I “really” am, it would show a higher number.
I spent less than a minute translating from my previous estimate of “highly confident but not certain” to a percentage. Things I considered that made the probability higher:
Every time humans have figured out how something works, the explanation has been a reductionist one.
The only reason to think that the mind would be an exception to this is that the mind is unique in other ways (qualia/subjective experience; free will).
Things I considered that made the probability lower:
The proposition under question could be false for two different reasons:
ontologically basic mental entities
physical yet non-neurological parts of the mind’s substrate
I don’t know how the mind works (nor does anyone else), so I should nudge my probability estimate away from certainty either way.
The mind is indeed unique.