Because Omega is going to know what triggers you would use for anomalies. A star streaking across the sky is easy to see coming if you know the current state of the universe. As such, Omega would know you are about to two-box even though you are currently planning to one-box.
When the star streaks across the sky, you think, “Ohmigosh! It happened! I’m about to get rich!” Then you open the boxes and get $1000.
Essentially, it boils down to this: If you can predict a scenario where you will two-box instead of one-box than Omega can as well.
The idea of flipping quantum coins is more fool proof. The idea of stars streaking or milk unspilling is only hard for us to see coming. Not to mention it will probably trigger all sorts of biases when you start looking for ways to cheat the system.
Note: I am not up to speed on quantum mechanics. I could be off on a few things here.
OK, right: looking for a merging of stars would be a terrible anomaly to use because that’s probably classical mechanics and Omega-predictable. The milk unspilling would still be a good example, because Omega can’t see it coming either. (He can accurately predict that I will two-box in this case, but he can’t predict that the milk will unspill.)
I would have to be very careful that the anomaly I use is really not predictable. For example, I screwed up with the streaking star. I was already reluctant to trust flipping quantum coins, whatever those are. They would need to be flipped or simulated by some mechanical device and may have all kinds of systematic biases and impracticalities if you are actually trying to flip 10^23^23 coins.
Without having plenty of time to think about it, and say, some physicists advising me, it would probably be wise for me to just one-box.
Because Omega is going to know what triggers you would use for anomalies. A star streaking across the sky is easy to see coming if you know the current state of the universe. As such, Omega would know you are about to two-box even though you are currently planning to one-box.
When the star streaks across the sky, you think, “Ohmigosh! It happened! I’m about to get rich!” Then you open the boxes and get $1000.
Essentially, it boils down to this: If you can predict a scenario where you will two-box instead of one-box than Omega can as well.
The idea of flipping quantum coins is more fool proof. The idea of stars streaking or milk unspilling is only hard for us to see coming. Not to mention it will probably trigger all sorts of biases when you start looking for ways to cheat the system.
Note: I am not up to speed on quantum mechanics. I could be off on a few things here.
OK, right: looking for a merging of stars would be a terrible anomaly to use because that’s probably classical mechanics and Omega-predictable. The milk unspilling would still be a good example, because Omega can’t see it coming either. (He can accurately predict that I will two-box in this case, but he can’t predict that the milk will unspill.)
I would have to be very careful that the anomaly I use is really not predictable. For example, I screwed up with the streaking star. I was already reluctant to trust flipping quantum coins, whatever those are. They would need to be flipped or simulated by some mechanical device and may have all kinds of systematic biases and impracticalities if you are actually trying to flip 10^23^23 coins.
Without having plenty of time to think about it, and say, some physicists advising me, it would probably be wise for me to just one-box.