I may be misunderstanding something, but isn’t the standard LW position on smoking to smoke even if the gene’s correlation to smoking and cancer is 1?
If the mutual correlation to both is 1, you will smoke if and only if you have the gene, and you will have the gene if and only if you smoke, and in which case you shouldn’t smoke. At the point at which the gene is a perfect predictor, if you have a genetic test and you don’t have the gene, and then smoke—then the genetic test produced a false negative. Perfect predictors necessarily make a mess of causality.
you will smoke if and only if you have the gene, and you will have the gene if and only if you smoke, and in which case you shouldn’t smoke
This implicitly assumes EDT.
At the point at which the gene is a perfect predictor, if you have a genetic test and you don’t have the gene, and then smoke
But that’s not what CDT counterfactuals do. You cut off previous nodes. As the choice to smoke doesn’t causally affect the gene, smoking doesn’t counterfactually contradict the prediction. If you would actually smoke, then yes, but counterfactuals don’t imply there’s any chance of it happening in reality.
No it doesn’t. It assumes a “perfect predictor” is what it is. I don’t give a damn about evidence—we’re specifying properties of a universe here.
But that’s not what CDT counterfactuals do.
CDT assumes causality makes sense in the universe. Your hypotheticals don’t take place in a universe with the kind of causality causal decision theory depends upon.
You cut off previous nodes. As the choice to smoke doesn’t causally affect the gene, smoking doesn’t counterfactually contradict the prediction.
In the case of a perfect predictor, yes, smoking specifies which gene you have. You don’t get to say “Everybody who smokes has this gene” as a property of the universe, and then pretend to be an exception to a property of the universe because you have a bizarre and magical agency that gets to bypass properties of the universe. You’re a part of the universe; if the universe has a law (which it does, in our hypotheticals), the law applies to you, too.
We have a perfect predictor. We do something the perfect predictor predicted we wouldn’t. There is a contradiction there, in case you didn’t notice; either it’s not, in fact, the perfect predictor we specified, or we didn’t do the thing. One or the other. And our hypothetical universe is constructed such that the perfect predictor is a perfect predictor; therefore, we don’t get to violate its predictions.
No it doesn’t. It assumes a “perfect predictor” is what it is. I don’t give a damn about evidence—we’re specifying properties of a universe here.
You said “you shouldn’t smoke”, which is a decision-theoretical claim, not a specification. It’s consistent with EDT, but not CDT.
You don’t get to say “Everybody who smokes has this gene” as a property of the universe, and then pretend to be an exception to a property of the universe because you have a bizarre and magical agency that gets to bypass properties of the universe.
In other words, you’re denying the exact thing that CDT asserts.
There is a contradiction there
Which is what a counterfactual is.
Whatever your theory is, it is denying core claims that CDT makes, so you’re denying CDT (and implicitly assuming EDT as the method for making decisions, your arguments literally map directly onto EDT arguments).
You said “you shouldn’t smoke”, which is a decision-theoretical claim, not a specification. It’s consistent with EDT, but not CDT.
No it isn’t, it’s a statement about the universe: If you smoke, you’ll get lesions. It’s written into the specification of the universe; what decision theory you use doesn’t change the characteristics of the universe.
In other words, you’re denying the exact thing that CDT asserts.
No. You don’t get to specify a universe without the kind of causality that the kind of CDT we use in our universe depends on, and then claim that this says something significant about decision theory. Causality in our hypothetical works differently.
Which is what a counterfactual is.
No it isn’t.
Whatever your theory is, it is denying core claims that CDT makes, so you’re denying CDT (and implicitly assuming EDT as the method for making decisions, your arguments literally map directly onto EDT arguments).
No it isn’t. In terms of CDT, we can say that smoking causes the gene; this isn’t wrong, because, according to the universe, anybody who smokes has the gene; if they didn’t, they do now, because the correlation is guaranteed by the laws of the universe. No matter how much work you prepared to ensure you didn’t have the gene in advance of smoking, the law of the universe says you have it now. No matter how many tests you ran, they were all wrong.
It may seem unintuitive and bizarre, because our own universe doesn’t behave this way—but when you find yourself in an alien universe, stomping your foot and insisting that the laws of physics should behave the way you’re used to them behaving is a fast way to die. Once you introduce a perfect predictor, the universe must bend to ensure the predictions work out.
You don’t get to specify a universe without the kind of causality that the kind of CDT we use in our universe depends on, and then claim that this says something significant about decision theory.
What kind of causality is this, given that you assert that the correct thing to do in smoking lesions is refrain from smoking, and smoking lesions is one of the standard things where CDT says to smoke?
“A causes B, therefore B causes A” is a fallacy no matter what arguments you put forward.
In terms of CDT, we can say that smoking causes the gene
CDT asserts the opposite, and so if you claim this then you disagree with CDT.
What kind of causality is this, given that you assert that the correct thing to do in smoking lesions is refrain from smoking, and smoking lesions is one of the standard things where CDT says to smoke?
Recursive causality.
“A causes B, therefore B causes A” is a fallacy no matter what arguments you put forward.
Perfect mutual correlation means both that A->B and that B->A.
CDT asserts the opposite, and so if you claim this then you disagree with CDT.
No it doesn’t.
You don’t understand what counterfactuals are.
A counterfactual is a state of existence which is not true of the universe. It is not a contradiction.
“If you have a genetic test and you don’t have the gene, and then smoke—then the genetic test produced a false negative.”
If Omega makes the mistake of telling someone else that he predicted that you will one-box, and that person tells you, so you then take both boxes, knowing that the million is already there, then Omega’s prediction was wrong.
Omega can be a perfect predictor, but he cannot tell you his prediction, at least not if you work the way normal humans do. Likewise, a gene could be a perfect predictor, but not if you know about it, at least not if you work the way normal humans do.
Omega appears before you, and gives you a pencil. He tells you that, in universes in which you break this pencil in half in the next twenty seconds, the universe ends immediately. Not as a result of your breaking the pencil—it’s pure coincidence that all universes in which you break the pencil, the universe ends, and in all universes in which you don’t, it doesn’t.
Do you break the pencil in half? It’s not like you’re changing anything by doing so, after all; some set of universes will end, some set won’t, and you aren’t going to change that.
You’re just deciding which set of universes you happen to occupy. Which implies something.
I don’t break the pencil. But I already pointed out in Newcomb and in the Smoking Lesion that I don’t care if I can change anything or not. So I don’t care here either.
If the mutual correlation to both is 1, you will smoke if and only if you have the gene, and you will have the gene if and only if you smoke, and in which case you shouldn’t smoke. At the point at which the gene is a perfect predictor, if you have a genetic test and you don’t have the gene, and then smoke—then the genetic test produced a false negative. Perfect predictors necessarily make a mess of causality.
This implicitly assumes EDT.
But that’s not what CDT counterfactuals do. You cut off previous nodes. As the choice to smoke doesn’t causally affect the gene, smoking doesn’t counterfactually contradict the prediction. If you would actually smoke, then yes, but counterfactuals don’t imply there’s any chance of it happening in reality.
No it doesn’t. It assumes a “perfect predictor” is what it is. I don’t give a damn about evidence—we’re specifying properties of a universe here.
CDT assumes causality makes sense in the universe. Your hypotheticals don’t take place in a universe with the kind of causality causal decision theory depends upon.
In the case of a perfect predictor, yes, smoking specifies which gene you have. You don’t get to say “Everybody who smokes has this gene” as a property of the universe, and then pretend to be an exception to a property of the universe because you have a bizarre and magical agency that gets to bypass properties of the universe. You’re a part of the universe; if the universe has a law (which it does, in our hypotheticals), the law applies to you, too.
We have a perfect predictor. We do something the perfect predictor predicted we wouldn’t. There is a contradiction there, in case you didn’t notice; either it’s not, in fact, the perfect predictor we specified, or we didn’t do the thing. One or the other. And our hypothetical universe is constructed such that the perfect predictor is a perfect predictor; therefore, we don’t get to violate its predictions.
You said “you shouldn’t smoke”, which is a decision-theoretical claim, not a specification. It’s consistent with EDT, but not CDT.
In other words, you’re denying the exact thing that CDT asserts.
Which is what a counterfactual is.
Whatever your theory is, it is denying core claims that CDT makes, so you’re denying CDT (and implicitly assuming EDT as the method for making decisions, your arguments literally map directly onto EDT arguments).
No it isn’t, it’s a statement about the universe: If you smoke, you’ll get lesions. It’s written into the specification of the universe; what decision theory you use doesn’t change the characteristics of the universe.
No. You don’t get to specify a universe without the kind of causality that the kind of CDT we use in our universe depends on, and then claim that this says something significant about decision theory. Causality in our hypothetical works differently.
No it isn’t.
No it isn’t. In terms of CDT, we can say that smoking causes the gene; this isn’t wrong, because, according to the universe, anybody who smokes has the gene; if they didn’t, they do now, because the correlation is guaranteed by the laws of the universe. No matter how much work you prepared to ensure you didn’t have the gene in advance of smoking, the law of the universe says you have it now. No matter how many tests you ran, they were all wrong.
It may seem unintuitive and bizarre, because our own universe doesn’t behave this way—but when you find yourself in an alien universe, stomping your foot and insisting that the laws of physics should behave the way you’re used to them behaving is a fast way to die. Once you introduce a perfect predictor, the universe must bend to ensure the predictions work out.
What kind of causality is this, given that you assert that the correct thing to do in smoking lesions is refrain from smoking, and smoking lesions is one of the standard things where CDT says to smoke?
“A causes B, therefore B causes A” is a fallacy no matter what arguments you put forward.
CDT asserts the opposite, and so if you claim this then you disagree with CDT.
You don’t understand what counterfactuals are.
Recursive causality.
Perfect mutual correlation means both that A->B and that B->A.
No it doesn’t.
A counterfactual is a state of existence which is not true of the universe. It is not a contradiction.
“If you have a genetic test and you don’t have the gene, and then smoke—then the genetic test produced a false negative.”
If Omega makes the mistake of telling someone else that he predicted that you will one-box, and that person tells you, so you then take both boxes, knowing that the million is already there, then Omega’s prediction was wrong.
Omega can be a perfect predictor, but he cannot tell you his prediction, at least not if you work the way normal humans do. Likewise, a gene could be a perfect predictor, but not if you know about it, at least not if you work the way normal humans do.
Trial problem:
Omega appears before you, and gives you a pencil. He tells you that, in universes in which you break this pencil in half in the next twenty seconds, the universe ends immediately. Not as a result of your breaking the pencil—it’s pure coincidence that all universes in which you break the pencil, the universe ends, and in all universes in which you don’t, it doesn’t.
Do you break the pencil in half? It’s not like you’re changing anything by doing so, after all; some set of universes will end, some set won’t, and you aren’t going to change that.
You’re just deciding which set of universes you happen to occupy. Which implies something.
I don’t break the pencil. But I already pointed out in Newcomb and in the Smoking Lesion that I don’t care if I can change anything or not. So I don’t care here either.