Yes, I am saying that 100% predictive accuracy does not make sense apart from determinism. I agree that lower degrees of accuracy could happen without complete determinism. Even lower degrees of accuracy would not necessarily change my decision in the scenarios (although it would change the decision once the degree of accuracy became too low.)
I agree with you about the gap between humans, calculators, and chess computers. I am just saying that “making a choice” just implies considering several possibilities before selecting one of them. So it isn’t true that “you don’t have a choice” if you consider several possibilities, even if there are reasons why you will definitely choose a particular one.
So for example, even if determinism is false, I am quite sure that I am not going to kill myself tomorrow. That doesn’t change the fact that it is one possibility that I could consider. So I have a choice between killing myself and not killing myself, even though I know which one I am going to choose.
I am just saying that “making a choice” just implies considering several possibilities before selecting one of them. So it isn’t true that “you don’t have a choice” if you consider several possibilities,
That’s a straightforward logical fallacy. You’re saying “If A then B, therefore if B then A” where A=”making a choice” and B=”considering several possibilities”.
Besides, you just moved the heavy-lifting part to the word “considering”. If I’m going to count to 3, whether I will consider 2 or 4 (five is right out) is quite irrelevant because I will count to 3 regardless.
A considered alternative is one you could choose, but in the situation we’re talking about you could not (since your choice is predetermined). And in this case, it’s merely something your attention slides over before settling on the inevitable.
I am saying “making a choice” is nothing more and nothing less than “considering two or more possibilities and selecting one of them.” Each one implies the other.
If you are planning to count to three, you do not consider stopping at two, so there is no choice.
Your objection is that there are not really two or more possibilities, but only one. But that is not the way consideration works. When you consider two possible choices, they are both possible as far as you know, since you do not know which one you are going to choose. So from your point of view, you are making a choice, even if more fundamentally something is determining which choice you are making.
I’m not sure what you mean by “a choice from an external point of view.” Other people can see that you considered several possibilities and selected one of them. It may be (if this deterministic theory is true) that someone can figure out in advance which one you are going to select, and perhaps that person wouldn’t describe it as a choice. That’s just a question of how they are using the word.
I’m not sure what you mean by “a choice from an external point of view.”
The usual—e.g. in the “perfect predictor” version of the Newcomb problem you might think you’re making a choice, but Omega knows what you are going to choose and so from its point of view (“external” to you) you don’t actually have a choice and will do what you are predetermined to do.
In any case, we’ve dug down to the more or less standard free-will debate...
Yes, I am saying that 100% predictive accuracy does not make sense apart from determinism. I agree that lower degrees of accuracy could happen without complete determinism. Even lower degrees of accuracy would not necessarily change my decision in the scenarios (although it would change the decision once the degree of accuracy became too low.)
I agree with you about the gap between humans, calculators, and chess computers. I am just saying that “making a choice” just implies considering several possibilities before selecting one of them. So it isn’t true that “you don’t have a choice” if you consider several possibilities, even if there are reasons why you will definitely choose a particular one.
So for example, even if determinism is false, I am quite sure that I am not going to kill myself tomorrow. That doesn’t change the fact that it is one possibility that I could consider. So I have a choice between killing myself and not killing myself, even though I know which one I am going to choose.
That’s a straightforward logical fallacy. You’re saying “If A then B, therefore if B then A” where A=”making a choice” and B=”considering several possibilities”.
Besides, you just moved the heavy-lifting part to the word “considering”. If I’m going to count to 3, whether I will consider 2 or 4 (five is right out) is quite irrelevant because I will count to 3 regardless.
A considered alternative is one you could choose, but in the situation we’re talking about you could not (since your choice is predetermined). And in this case, it’s merely something your attention slides over before settling on the inevitable.
I am saying “making a choice” is nothing more and nothing less than “considering two or more possibilities and selecting one of them.” Each one implies the other.
If you are planning to count to three, you do not consider stopping at two, so there is no choice.
Your objection is that there are not really two or more possibilities, but only one. But that is not the way consideration works. When you consider two possible choices, they are both possible as far as you know, since you do not know which one you are going to choose. So from your point of view, you are making a choice, even if more fundamentally something is determining which choice you are making.
Ah, so you’re defining the expression “making a choice” as “considering and selecting”. OK.
Am I making a choice from an external point of view?
I’m not sure what you mean by “a choice from an external point of view.” Other people can see that you considered several possibilities and selected one of them. It may be (if this deterministic theory is true) that someone can figure out in advance which one you are going to select, and perhaps that person wouldn’t describe it as a choice. That’s just a question of how they are using the word.
The usual—e.g. in the “perfect predictor” version of the Newcomb problem you might think you’re making a choice, but Omega knows what you are going to choose and so from its point of view (“external” to you) you don’t actually have a choice and will do what you are predetermined to do.
In any case, we’ve dug down to the more or less standard free-will debate...