I did look at the Iceland data. I divided the NUHI positive tests by the total tests, and saw a very noisy upwards-trending line in the fraction of positive test results.
As for hospitalizations, I was comparing the age distribution of hospitalizations for flu and confirmed covid. I found that the ratio of 20-45:65+ hospitalizations for flu was 1:7, and that the same ratio for covid was 1:2. Assuming a similar age distribution for actual infections, this means a larger fraction of young people is coming down with severe disease.
Assuming a similar age distribution for actual infections, this means a larger fraction of young people is coming down with severe disease.
Disease severity increases with age, and testing probability increases with severity and thus age (in most places). Thus the ratio p(tested | infection) is age skewed and typically much lower for younger ages.
After adjusting by dividing by age dependent p(tested | infection) you can correct that skew and you probably get something more similar to influenza hosp rate curve.
So again you aren’t comparing even remotely the same units and it’s important to realize that.
As for hospitalizations, I was comparing the age distribution of hospitalizations for flu and confirmed covid. I found that the ratio of 20-45:65+ hospitalizations for flu was 1:7, and that the same ratio for covid was 1:2. Assuming a similar age distribution for actual infections, this means a larger fraction of young people is coming down with severe disease.
Age distribution of estimated hospitalizations for flu? or confirmed? (It seems difficult to get the latter) Source?
I did look at the Iceland data. I divided the NUHI positive tests by the total tests, and saw a very noisy upwards-trending line in the fraction of positive test results.
As for hospitalizations, I was comparing the age distribution of hospitalizations for flu and confirmed covid. I found that the ratio of 20-45:65+ hospitalizations for flu was 1:7, and that the same ratio for covid was 1:2. Assuming a similar age distribution for actual infections, this means a larger fraction of young people is coming down with severe disease.
As for ICU periods, doctors are reporting that many covid patients require a ventilator for 1-2 weeks. https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/what-ventilator-critical-resource-currently-short-supply-n1168641
I am looking for the resource I read yesterday that the typical flu ventilation period was 3-4 days.
Disease severity increases with age, and testing probability increases with severity and thus age (in most places). Thus the ratio p(tested | infection) is age skewed and typically much lower for younger ages.
After adjusting by dividing by age dependent p(tested | infection) you can correct that skew and you probably get something more similar to influenza hosp rate curve.
So again you aren’t comparing even remotely the same units and it’s important to realize that.
Age distribution of estimated hospitalizations for flu? or confirmed? (It seems difficult to get the latter) Source?