Naively if ICU fatality is ~30%, and we worst-case assume those all become deaths absent ventilators, that suggests about 3X higher deaths sans ventilators. However in reality we would/will probably just quickly produce more ventilators, start sharing ventilators, jury-rigging C-pack machines into ventilators, etc.
Naively if ICU fatality is ~30%, and we worst-case assume those all become deaths absent ventilators, that suggests about 3X higher deaths sans ventilators. However in reality we would/will probably just quickly produce more ventilators, start sharing ventilators, jury-rigging C-pack machines into ventilators, etc.
Those are direct effects, but many other people won’t receive care or will have care postponed by general capacity overwhelm.