Perhaps this isn’t clear enough from the title (but should be clear from the post), that the similarity I”m discussing is in terms of outcomes given illness: IFR and IHR.
Absent controls and behavioral changes, I agree that it seems likely that considerably more than 1% of the population would be infected. Seasonal flu infects perhaps 10%. It’s clear at this point that C19 is often asymptomatic/mild especially in younger people, and I recall some potential bio explanations like pre-existing partial immunity through cross reactive antigens. On the DP we know about 30% were infected and it could be higher—perhaps 50%, but that population is half retirees. So from this evidence alone my estimate is somewhere between 10% to 50% would be infected absent any behavioral changes.
Perhaps this isn’t clear enough from the title (but should be clear from the post), that the similarity I”m discussing is in terms of outcomes given illness: IFR and IHR.
Absent controls and behavioral changes, I agree that it seems likely that considerably more than 1% of the population would be infected. Seasonal flu infects perhaps 10%. It’s clear at this point that C19 is often asymptomatic/mild especially in younger people, and I recall some potential bio explanations like pre-existing partial immunity through cross reactive antigens. On the DP we know about 30% were infected and it could be higher—perhaps 50%, but that population is half retirees. So from this evidence alone my estimate is somewhere between 10% to 50% would be infected absent any behavioral changes.
However social distancing appears to have already be crushing fever prevalence in the US.