How can the ICU admission rate be similar to the flu, when fever levels (healtweather.us) in New York are lower than the peak of flu season but they are strapped for space?
Are you saying that some significant fraction of NY hospitals are currently overcrowded with C19 patients right now? Or that one hospital is? What is the actual dataset source for “they are strapped for space”?
Yes I am. As should anyone actually paying attention.
News reports, which are usually behind reality, indicate >1000 out of ~1800 ICU beds in the city (which normally run at ~80% capacity for literally everything else) are currently occupied by Covid patients and that it is rising at >30% daily.
Everything we do now (procure ventilators etc) is in preparation for possible apex (when curve hits the highest point)
Apex in New York is estimated in 14-21 days from now
172 new ICU admission in the last day, vs. 374 in the preceding day, may indicate a decline in the growth rate
A demand of 1000 ICU beds suggests about 300K infected in NY assuming influenza like IFR of ~0.1% and ICU mortality of ~30%, so this isn’t in disagreement. More likely if 1M are infected demand should be for ~3000 ICU beds.
There may or may not be a difference in mean ICU/ventilator length of stay—that isn’t something I’ve looked at yet. According to Cuomo C19 patients need ventilators for 11 to 21 days vs 3 to 4 days for all other causes. This paper indicates 6 to 17 days for H1N1 in 2009.
How can the ICU admission rate be similar to the flu, when fever levels (healtweather.us) in New York are lower than the peak of flu season but they are strapped for space?
Are you saying that some significant fraction of NY hospitals are currently overcrowded with C19 patients right now? Or that one hospital is? What is the actual dataset source for “they are strapped for space”?
Yes I am. As should anyone actually paying attention.
News reports, which are usually behind reality, indicate >1000 out of ~1800 ICU beds in the city (which normally run at ~80% capacity for literally everything else) are currently occupied by Covid patients and that it is rising at >30% daily.
https://nypost.com/2020/03/28/coronavirus-in-ny-citys-icu-bed-capacity-ranks-in-bottom-quarter-nationally/
Paramedics are scrambling, responding to more calls daily than on 9/11.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-ems.html
From Govenor Cuomo’s briefing:
A demand of 1000 ICU beds suggests about 300K infected in NY assuming influenza like IFR of ~0.1% and ICU mortality of ~30%, so this isn’t in disagreement. More likely if 1M are infected demand should be for ~3000 ICU beds.
There may or may not be a difference in mean ICU/ventilator length of stay—that isn’t something I’ve looked at yet. According to Cuomo C19 patients need ventilators for 11 to 21 days vs 3 to 4 days for all other causes. This paper indicates 6 to 17 days for H1N1 in 2009.