Hmm. That conclusion is not where I thought you were going with the war analogy.
Suppose that the United States finds itself at war with, say, Iceland. At the height of the conflict, the two sides sit down at a negotiating table, whereupon the American diplomat says to his Icelandic counterpart: “You guys know you can’t win this one, right?”
In this scenario, are we to suppose that U.S. leaders are worried about losing the war… to Iceland? Are strategists at the Pentagon frantically drawing up plans for resisting an Icelandic invasion of Maine (with the rest of New England—according to their projections—soon to follow)?
Seems unlikely. Rather, the message here is more like: “You can’t win, and we both know it. The only uncertainty in the outcome is how much money you can make us spend on beating you. And if you make us fight you to the end, we’ll make you regret it. There won’t be a hut left standing in your whole country, when we’re done with you. So give up now, and we’ll both come out on top, compared to that counterfactual scenario. We don’t have to fight; and it’s better for both of us if we don’t. But if you insist on fighting, you definitely can’t win… and losing will be much worse for you than not fighting at all.”
How does this map to the argument scenario? Well, consider two sides, A and B (where B is just “everyone who isn’t A, and cares about the question at all”); and representatives of each side, respectively Alice and Bob. Alice makes some argument, aimed at persuading members of B to the A position. Bob (who is a B) says: “You’ll never persuade people like that.”
It seems like one obvious expansion is:
“You won’t persuade any Bs like that, and we both know it. The only uncertainty in the outcome is how much effort you can make me and other Bs expend on countering your arguments. And if you make us deconstruct your arguments in detail, we’ll make you regret it. You’ll look like an idiot, a lunatic, an ignoramus, when we’re done with you. So give up now, and we’ll both come out on top, compared to that counterfactual scenario. We don’t have to have this argument; and it’s better for both of us if we didn’t. But if you insist on arguing, you definitely can’t win… and losing will be much worse for you than not trying to argue at all.”
Hmm. That conclusion is not where I thought you were going with the war analogy.
Suppose that the United States finds itself at war with, say, Iceland. At the height of the conflict, the two sides sit down at a negotiating table, whereupon the American diplomat says to his Icelandic counterpart: “You guys know you can’t win this one, right?”
In this scenario, are we to suppose that U.S. leaders are worried about losing the war… to Iceland? Are strategists at the Pentagon frantically drawing up plans for resisting an Icelandic invasion of Maine (with the rest of New England—according to their projections—soon to follow)?
Seems unlikely. Rather, the message here is more like: “You can’t win, and we both know it. The only uncertainty in the outcome is how much money you can make us spend on beating you. And if you make us fight you to the end, we’ll make you regret it. There won’t be a hut left standing in your whole country, when we’re done with you. So give up now, and we’ll both come out on top, compared to that counterfactual scenario. We don’t have to fight; and it’s better for both of us if we don’t. But if you insist on fighting, you definitely can’t win… and losing will be much worse for you than not fighting at all.”
How does this map to the argument scenario? Well, consider two sides, A and B (where B is just “everyone who isn’t A, and cares about the question at all”); and representatives of each side, respectively Alice and Bob. Alice makes some argument, aimed at persuading members of B to the A position. Bob (who is a B) says: “You’ll never persuade people like that.”
It seems like one obvious expansion is:
“You won’t persuade any Bs like that, and we both know it. The only uncertainty in the outcome is how much effort you can make me and other Bs expend on countering your arguments. And if you make us deconstruct your arguments in detail, we’ll make you regret it. You’ll look like an idiot, a lunatic, an ignoramus, when we’re done with you. So give up now, and we’ll both come out on top, compared to that counterfactual scenario. We don’t have to have this argument; and it’s better for both of us if we didn’t. But if you insist on arguing, you definitely can’t win… and losing will be much worse for you than not trying to argue at all.”