Awesome idea! I think there might be something here, but I think the difference between “no chance” and “0.01% chance” is more of a discrete change from not tracking something to tracking it. We might also expect neglect of “one in a million” vs “one in a trillion” in both updates and decision-making, which causes a mistake opposite that predicted by this model in the case of decision-making.
Awesome idea! I think there might be something here, but I think the difference between “no chance” and “0.01% chance” is more of a discrete change from not tracking something to tracking it. We might also expect neglect of “one in a million” vs “one in a trillion” in both updates and decision-making, which causes a mistake opposite that predicted by this model in the case of decision-making.