Very nicely researched and explained analysis. Contains several points that I had not thought about much before if at all, including the analysis of false negatives in this particular context.
I’d be interested to hear more thoughts on your mechanistic explanation from commenters with more expertise in immunology.
Also interested to hear how you and other commenters are planning to change your own Covid risk-taking behavior after being vaccinated. I am coming up on two weeks after my second Pfizer shot and debating that for myself.
It seems the caveat regarding selection effects, that vaccinated people might be prone to more health-seeking behavior and might risk compensate, could swamp many of the other careful arguments. Is there any way we could get a rough estimate on these selection effects?
The variants caveat is scary, but at least we can monitor variants over time and try to adjust our risk behavior accordingly.
Very nicely researched and explained analysis. Contains several points that I had not thought about much before if at all, including the analysis of false negatives in this particular context.
I’d be interested to hear more thoughts on your mechanistic explanation from commenters with more expertise in immunology.
Also interested to hear how you and other commenters are planning to change your own Covid risk-taking behavior after being vaccinated. I am coming up on two weeks after my second Pfizer shot and debating that for myself.
It seems the caveat regarding selection effects, that vaccinated people might be prone to more health-seeking behavior and might risk compensate, could swamp many of the other careful arguments. Is there any way we could get a rough estimate on these selection effects?
The variants caveat is scary, but at least we can monitor variants over time and try to adjust our risk behavior accordingly.