Have I misread you point or am I thinking about this from the wrong angle?
Maybe the belief here is “the next flip of the coin will be heads”. Then each head causes your confidence in that belief to increase, while each tail causes a decrease in that confidence.
You’re right, though; the belief “the coin is heads 94-96% of the time” behaves according to more complicated rules. Even if it is true, every so often, you will still get evidence that contradicts your belief—such as a twenty tails in a row. But not often, and Elizer’s point still applies.
Have I misread you point or am I thinking about this from the wrong angle?
Maybe the belief here is “the next flip of the coin will be heads”. Then each head causes your confidence in that belief to increase, while each tail causes a decrease in that confidence.
You’re right, though; the belief “the coin is heads 94-96% of the time” behaves according to more complicated rules. Even if it is true, every so often, you will still get evidence that contradicts your belief—such as a twenty tails in a row. But not often, and Elizer’s point still applies.