Generally, running the Olympics comes with a lot of local economic activity to make the event happen and various actors benefit from being able to plan ahead.
I agree with this, I just don’t think hotel rooms are a particularly good example since supply is fixed there is little hotel operators can do with knowledge of the probability of the event. (They can “change” prices, but prices are effectively driven my a market equilibrium (which is going to effectively be a prediction market on the Olympics going ahead))
The bed market is similar to a prediction market but less efficient then a good prediction market. If people buy hotel beds and then resell them that adds a lot of overhead that you don’t have if that market function is done through a good prediction market.
I agree with this, I just don’t think hotel rooms are a particularly good example since supply is fixed there is little hotel operators can do with knowledge of the probability of the event. (They can “change” prices, but prices are effectively driven my a market equilibrium (which is going to effectively be a prediction market on the Olympics going ahead))
The bed market is similar to a prediction market but less efficient then a good prediction market. If people buy hotel beds and then resell them that adds a lot of overhead that you don’t have if that market function is done through a good prediction market.