Those surveys suffer from selection bias. Nick Bostrom is going to try to get a similar survey instrument administered to a less-selected AI audience. There was also a poll at the AI@50 conference.
Hm, I had not heard about that. SIAI doesn’t seem to do a very good job of publicizing its projects or perhaps doesn’t do a good job of finishing and releasing them.
Those surveys suffer from selection bias. Nick Bostrom is going to try to get a similar survey instrument administered to a less-selected AI audience. There was also a poll at the AI@50 conference.
http://www.engagingexperience.com/2006/07/ai50_first_poll.html
If the raw data was ever published, that might be of some interest.
Any chance of piggybacking questions relevant to Maes-Garreau on that survey? As you point out on that page, better stats are badly needed.
And indeed, I suggested to SIAI folk that all public record predictions of AI timelines be collected for that purpose, and such a project is underway.
Hm, I had not heard about that. SIAI doesn’t seem to do a very good job of publicizing its projects or perhaps doesn’t do a good job of finishing and releasing them.
It just started this month, at the same time as Summit preparation.