You are getting much closer than any of the commenter’s before you to provide some other form of evidence to substantiate one of the primary claims here.
You have to list your primary propositions on which you base further argumentation, from which you draw conclusions and which you use to come up with probability estimations stating risks associated with former premises. You have to list these main principles so anyone who comes across claims of existential risks and a plead for donation, can get an overview. Then you have to provide the references you listed above, if you believe they give credence to the ideas, so that people see that all you say isn’t made up but based on previous work and evidence by people that are not associated with your organisation.
Or are you going to pull a no-true-Scotsman and assert that each one of these is mechanical or unoriginal or not really beyond human or just not different enough?
No, although I have heard about all of the achievements I’m not yet able to judge if they provide evidence supporting the possibility of strong superhuman AI, the kind that would pose a existential risk. Although in the case of chess I’m pretty much the opinion that this is no strong evidence as it is not sufficiently close to be able to overpower humans to an extent of posing a existential risk when extrapolated into other areas.
It would be good if you could provide links to the mentioned examples. Especially the genetic algorithm (ETA: Here.). It is still questionable however if this could lead to the stated recursive improvements or will shortly hit a limit. To my knowledge genetic algorithms are merely used for optimization, based on previous design spaces and are not able to come up with something unique to the extent of leaving their design space.
Whether sophisticated machine learning algorithms are able to discover valuable insights beyond statistical inferences within higher-dimensional data-sets is a very interesting idea though. As I just read, the 2009 prize of the Netflix contest was given to a team that achieved a 10.05% improvement over the previous algorithm. I’ll have to examine this further if it might bear evidence that shows this kind of complicated mesh of algorithms might lead to a quick self-improvement.
One of the best comments so far, thanks. Although your last sentence was to my understanding simply showing that you are reluctant to further critique.
I am reluctant because you seem to ask for magical programs when you write things like:
“To my knowledge genetic algorithms are merely used for optimization, based on previous design spaces and are not able to come up with something unique to the extent of leaving their design space.”
I was going to link to AIXI and approximationsthereof; full AIXI is as general as an intelligence can be if you accept that there are no uncomputable phenomenon, and the approximations are already pretty powerful (from nothing to playing Pac-Man).
But then it occurred to me that anyone invoking a phrase like ‘leaving their design space’ might then just say ‘oh, those designs and models can only model Turing machines, and so they’re stuck in their design space’.
But then it occurred to me that anyone invoking a phrase like ‘leaving their design space’...
I’ve no idea (formally) of what a ‘design space’ actually is. This is a tactic I’m frequently using against strongholds of argumentation that are seemingly based on expertise. I use their own terminology and rearrange it into something that sounds superficially clever. I like to call it a Chinese room approach. Sometimes it turns out that all they were doing was to sound smart but cannot explain themselves when faced with their own terminology set to inquire about their pretences.
I thank you however for taking the time to actually link to further third party information that will substantiate given arguments for anyone not trusting the whole of LW without it.
I see. Does that actually work for you? (Note that your answer will determine whether I mentally re-categorize you from ‘interested open-minded outsider’ to ‘troll’.)
It works against cults and religion in general. I don’t argue with them about their religion being not even wrong but rather accept their terms and highlight inconsistencies within their own framework by going as far as I can with one of their arguments and by inquiring about certain aspects based on their own terminology until they are unable to consistently answer or explain where I am wrong.
This also works with the anti GM-food bunch, data protection activists, hippies and many other fringe groups. For example, the data protection bunch concerned with information disclosure on social networks or Google Streetview. Yes, I say, that’s bad, burglar could use such services to check out your house! I wonder what evidence there is for the increase of burglary in the countries where Streetview is already available for many years?
Or I tell the anti-gun lobbyists how I support their cause. It’s really bad if anyone can buy a gun. Can you point me to the strong correlation between gun ownership and firearm homicides? Thanks.
You are getting much closer than any of the commenter’s before you to provide some other form of evidence to substantiate one of the primary claims here.
You have to list your primary propositions on which you base further argumentation, from which you draw conclusions and which you use to come up with probability estimations stating risks associated with former premises. You have to list these main principles so anyone who comes across claims of existential risks and a plead for donation, can get an overview. Then you have to provide the references you listed above, if you believe they give credence to the ideas, so that people see that all you say isn’t made up but based on previous work and evidence by people that are not associated with your organisation.
No, although I have heard about all of the achievements I’m not yet able to judge if they provide evidence supporting the possibility of strong superhuman AI, the kind that would pose a existential risk. Although in the case of chess I’m pretty much the opinion that this is no strong evidence as it is not sufficiently close to be able to overpower humans to an extent of posing a existential risk when extrapolated into other areas.
It would be good if you could provide links to the mentioned examples. Especially the genetic algorithm (ETA: Here.). It is still questionable however if this could lead to the stated recursive improvements or will shortly hit a limit. To my knowledge genetic algorithms are merely used for optimization, based on previous design spaces and are not able to come up with something unique to the extent of leaving their design space.
Whether sophisticated machine learning algorithms are able to discover valuable insights beyond statistical inferences within higher-dimensional data-sets is a very interesting idea though. As I just read, the 2009 prize of the Netflix contest was given to a team that achieved a 10.05% improvement over the previous algorithm. I’ll have to examine this further if it might bear evidence that shows this kind of complicated mesh of algorithms might lead to a quick self-improvement.
One of the best comments so far, thanks. Although your last sentence was to my understanding simply showing that you are reluctant to further critique.
I am reluctant because you seem to ask for magical programs when you write things like:
I was going to link to AIXI and approximations thereof; full AIXI is as general as an intelligence can be if you accept that there are no uncomputable phenomenon, and the approximations are already pretty powerful (from nothing to playing Pac-Man).
But then it occurred to me that anyone invoking a phrase like ‘leaving their design space’ might then just say ‘oh, those designs and models can only model Turing machines, and so they’re stuck in their design space’.
I’ve no idea (formally) of what a ‘design space’ actually is. This is a tactic I’m frequently using against strongholds of argumentation that are seemingly based on expertise. I use their own terminology and rearrange it into something that sounds superficially clever. I like to call it a Chinese room approach. Sometimes it turns out that all they were doing was to sound smart but cannot explain themselves when faced with their own terminology set to inquire about their pretences.
I thank you however for taking the time to actually link to further third party information that will substantiate given arguments for anyone not trusting the whole of LW without it.
I see. Does that actually work for you? (Note that your answer will determine whether I mentally re-categorize you from ‘interested open-minded outsider’ to ‘troll’.)
It works against cults and religion in general. I don’t argue with them about their religion being not even wrong but rather accept their terms and highlight inconsistencies within their own framework by going as far as I can with one of their arguments and by inquiring about certain aspects based on their own terminology until they are unable to consistently answer or explain where I am wrong.
This also works with the anti GM-food bunch, data protection activists, hippies and many other fringe groups. For example, the data protection bunch concerned with information disclosure on social networks or Google Streetview. Yes, I say, that’s bad, burglar could use such services to check out your house! I wonder what evidence there is for the increase of burglary in the countries where Streetview is already available for many years?
Or I tell the anti-gun lobbyists how I support their cause. It’s really bad if anyone can buy a gun. Can you point me to the strong correlation between gun ownership and firearm homicides? Thanks.