There is also the unpacking bias mentioned in the survey pdf. Going the other direction are some knowledge effects. Also note that most of the attendees were not AI types, but experts on asteroids, nukes, bioweapons, cost-benefit analysis, astrophysics, and other non-AI risks. It’s still interesting that the median AI risk was more than a quarter of median total risk in light of that fact.
There is also the unpacking bias mentioned in the survey pdf. Going the other direction are some knowledge effects. Also note that most of the attendees were not AI types, but experts on asteroids, nukes, bioweapons, cost-benefit analysis, astrophysics, and other non-AI risks. It’s still interesting that the median AI risk was more than a quarter of median total risk in light of that fact.