With respect to transparency, I agree about a lack of concise, exhaustive, accessible treatments. Reading some of the linked comments about marginal evidence from hypotheses I’m not quite sure what you mean, beyond remembering and multiplying by the probability that particular premises are false. Consider Hanson’s “Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence”. One might support it with generalizations from past population growth in plants and animals, from data on capital investment and past market behavior and automation, but what would you say would license drawing probabilistic inferences using it?
With respect to transparency, I agree about a lack of concise, exhaustive, accessible treatments. Reading some of the linked comments about marginal evidence from hypotheses I’m not quite sure what you mean, beyond remembering and multiplying by the probability that particular premises are false. Consider Hanson’s “Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence”. One might support it with generalizations from past population growth in plants and animals, from data on capital investment and past market behavior and automation, but what would you say would license drawing probabilistic inferences using it?