I’m happy to say “within noise of 1” (aka “one minus epsilon”) is the upper limit for maximum permissible accurate confidence. Does that count as an answer to your question?
I don’t know any way to put a number to it; for any given mind, I expect there’s an upper limit to how confident that mind can be about anything, but that upper limit increases with how well-designed the mind is, and I have no idea what the upper limit is to how well-designed a mind can be, and I don’t know how to estimate the level of confidence an unspecified mind can have in that sort of proposition (though as at least one data point, a mind basically as fallible as mine but implementing error-checking algorithms can increase that maximum by many orders of magnitude).
I’d initially assumed that meant I couldn’t answer your question, but when you gave me “within noise of 1” as an answer for your confidence about toenails that suggested that you considered that an acceptable answer to questions about confidence levels, and it was an accurate answer to your question about confidence levels as well, so I gave it.
I’m not sure how I could tell the difference between two upper bounds of confidence at all. I mean, it’s not like I test them in practice. I similarly can’t tell whether the maximum speed of my car is 120 mph or 150 mph; I’ve never driven above 110.
But, to answer your question… nope, I wouldn’t be able to tell.
I’m happy to say “within noise of 1” (aka “one minus epsilon”) is the upper limit for maximum permissible accurate confidence. Does that count as an answer to your question?
What you said is an answer, but the manner in which you said it indicates that it isn’t the answer you intend.
I’m asking if there is a lower bound above zero for epsilon, and you just said yes, but you didn’t put a number on it.
I didn’t, it’s true.
I don’t know any way to put a number to it; for any given mind, I expect there’s an upper limit to how confident that mind can be about anything, but that upper limit increases with how well-designed the mind is, and I have no idea what the upper limit is to how well-designed a mind can be, and I don’t know how to estimate the level of confidence an unspecified mind can have in that sort of proposition (though as at least one data point, a mind basically as fallible as mine but implementing error-checking algorithms can increase that maximum by many orders of magnitude).
I’d initially assumed that meant I couldn’t answer your question, but when you gave me “within noise of 1” as an answer for your confidence about toenails that suggested that you considered that an acceptable answer to questions about confidence levels, and it was an accurate answer to your question about confidence levels as well, so I gave it.
So… you wouldn’t be able to tell the difference between an epsilon>0 and an epsilon =>0?
I’m not sure how I could tell the difference between two upper bounds of confidence at all. I mean, it’s not like I test them in practice. I similarly can’t tell whether the maximum speed of my car is 120 mph or 150 mph; I’ve never driven above 110.
But, to answer your question… nope, I wouldn’t be able to tell.