Newcomb’s problem isn’t about decision theory, it’s about magic and strange causation. Replace the magician with a human agent and one-boxing isn’t nearly as beneficial anymore- even when the human’s accuracy is very high.
I felt a weird sort of validation when I saw that Theists tend to 1box more than Atheists, and I think you pretty much nailed why. Theists are more likely to believe that omniscience is possible, so it isn’t surprising that less theists believe they can beat Omega.
I haven’t studied the literature on free will well enough to know the terms; I noticed that distribution of beliefs on free will were given in the post, and suspect that if I was up to speed on the terminology that would affect my confidence in my model of why people 1box/2box quite a lot. For now, I’m just noticing that all the arguments in favor of 2boxing that I’ve read seem to come down to refusal to believe that Omega can be a perfect predictor. But like I said, I’m not well studied on the literature and might not be saying anything meaningful.
I’m just noticing that all the arguments in favor of 2boxing that I’ve read seem to come down to refusal to believe that Omega can be a perfect predictor.
That’s hits what I meant pretty much on the head. If Omega is a perfect predictor, then it is meaningless to say that the human is making a choice.
I felt a weird sort of validation when I saw that Theists tend to 1box more than Atheists, and I think you pretty much nailed why. Theists are more likely to believe that omniscience is possible, so it isn’t surprising that less theists believe they can beat Omega.
I haven’t studied the literature on free will well enough to know the terms; I noticed that distribution of beliefs on free will were given in the post, and suspect that if I was up to speed on the terminology that would affect my confidence in my model of why people 1box/2box quite a lot. For now, I’m just noticing that all the arguments in favor of 2boxing that I’ve read seem to come down to refusal to believe that Omega can be a perfect predictor. But like I said, I’m not well studied on the literature and might not be saying anything meaningful.
That’s hits what I meant pretty much on the head. If Omega is a perfect predictor, then it is meaningless to say that the human is making a choice.