What value should I then guesstimate P( UAP ) to be? If I choose a generic 0.5, then the result will be an even higher P( UAP | observation ) than 0.53. Thus it would be even harder to dismiss the observation.
When I think of it, I recall I’m not the only one trying to estimate P(UAP). The Fermi paradox concludes something like this:
“Aliens surely do exist, so how come we don’t see them?”
In this sentence lies an estimate of P(UAP). The only problem is that it is rather high ( ‘surely’ == 0.9 ?), thus making it even harder again to dismiss P( UAP | observation )
That isn’t an estimate of P(UAP). The following two propositions are very different:
“There are technologically advanced civilizations elsewhere in the universe.”
“Sometimes things happen visibly in our skies that aren’t adequately explained by anything uncontroversially known to be real.”
The first of these can be true without the second—maybe there are aliens but they never come here. (That was rather the point of the Fermi paradox.)
The second can be true without the first—maybe people have actually seen angels, or time travellers from earth’s future, or spontaneous rips in the fabric of spacetime.
When I think of it, I recall I’m not the only one trying to estimate P(UAP). The Fermi paradox concludes something like this:
“Aliens surely do exist, so how come we don’t see them?”
In this sentence lies an estimate of P(UAP). The only problem is that it is rather high ( ‘surely’ == 0.9 ?), thus making it even harder again to dismiss P( UAP | observation )
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox
That isn’t an estimate of P(UAP). The following two propositions are very different:
“There are technologically advanced civilizations elsewhere in the universe.”
“Sometimes things happen visibly in our skies that aren’t adequately explained by anything uncontroversially known to be real.”
The first of these can be true without the second—maybe there are aliens but they never come here. (That was rather the point of the Fermi paradox.)
The second can be true without the first—maybe people have actually seen angels, or time travellers from earth’s future, or spontaneous rips in the fabric of spacetime.