I’m afraid I can’t tell which direction you think I’m confused in. That example was intended to be an instance of UO1 for which P(UO1|UAP) > P(UO1|¬UAP), and that still seems true to me, even if P(UO1|UAP) is still low.
(I’m taking UAP to be something like “Earth is sometimes visited by aliens”.)
I’m afraid I can’t tell which direction you think I’m confused in. That example was intended to be an instance of UO1 for which P(UO1|UAP) > P(UO1|¬UAP), and that still seems true to me, even if P(UO1|UAP) is still low.
(I’m taking UAP to be something like “Earth is sometimes visited by aliens”.)