the goal remains to implement CEV or something like it, and optimize the universe according to the resulting utility function
I think you mean “the goal remains to ensure that CEV or something like it is eventually implemented, and the universe is thus optimized according to the resulting utility function”, right? I think Eliezer’s view has always been that we want a CEV-maximizing ASI to be eventually turned on, but if that happens, it wouldn’t matter which human turns it on. And then evidently Eliezer has pivoted over the decades from thinking that this is likeliest to happen if he tries to build such an ASI with his own hands, to no longer thinking that.
All of that sounds right to me. But this pivot with regards to means isn’t much evidence about what Eliezer/MIRI would do if they (as a magical hypothetical) suddenly found themselves with a verifiably-aligned CEV AGI.
I expect that they would turn it on, with the expectation that it would develop a hard power decisive strategic advantage, use that to end the acute risk period, and then proceed to optimize the universe.
Insofar as that’s true, I think Oliver’s statement above...
and would absolutely definitely not include the ability of whoever builds AGI to just take over the world with it.
...is inaccurate.
MIRI has never said, to my knowledge,
We used to think that if a small team could build a verifiably-aligned CEV AI, that they should unilaterally turn it on, knowing that that will likely result in the relative disempowerment of many human institutions and existing human leaders. We once planned to do that ourselves.
We now think that was a mistake, not just because building a verifiably-aligned CEV AI is unworkably hard, but because unilaterally seizing a hard power advantage, even in the seizing a hard power advantage, even in the service of CEV, is an act of war (or something).
The Singularity Institute used to have the plan of building and deploying a friendly AI, which they expected to “optimize” the whole world.
Eliezer’s writing includes lots of point in which he at least hints (some would say more than hints), that he thinks that it is morally obligatory or at least virtuous, to take over the world for the side of Good.
Famously, Harry says “World Domination is such an ugly phrase. I prefer world optimization.” (We made t-shirts of this phrase!)
The Sword of Good ends with the line
“‘I don’t trust you either,’ Hirou whispered, ‘but I don’t expect there’s anyone better,’ and he closed his eyes until the end of the world.” He’s concluded that all the evil in the world must be opposed, that it’s right for someone to cast the “spell of ultimate power” to do that.
(This is made a bit murky, because Eliezer’s writings usually focus on the transhumanist conquest of the evils of nature, rather than political triumph over human-evil. But triumph over the human-evils is definitely included eg the moral importance and urgency of destroying Azkaban, in HP:MoR.)
From all that, I think it is reasonable to think that MIRI is in favor of taking over the world, if they could get the power to do it!
So it seems disingenuous, to me, to say,
I think Eliezer’s worldview here...would absolutely definitely not include the ability of whoever builds AGI to just take over the world with it.
I agree that
MIRI’s leadership doesn’t care who implements a CEV AI, as long as they do it correctly.
(Though this is not as clearly non-powerseeking, if you rephrase it as “MIRI leadership doesn’t care who implements the massively powerful AI, as long as they correctly align it to the values that MIRI leadership endorses.
For an outsider who doesn’t already trust the CEV process, this is about as reassuring as a communist group saying “we don’t care who implements the AI, as long as they properly align it to Marxist doctrine. I understand how CEV is more meta than that, how it is explicitly avoiding coding object level values into the AI. But not everyone will see it that way, especially if they think the output of CEV is contrary to their values (as indeed, virtually every existing group should.))
CEV as an optimization target is itself selected to be cosmopolitan and egalitarian. It’s as good faith attempt to optimize for the good of all. It does seem to me that the plan of “give a hard power advantage to this process, which we expect to implement the Good, itself”, is a step down in power-seeking from “give a hard power advantage to me, and I’ll do Good stuff.”
But it still seems to me that MIRI’s culture endorses sufficiently trustworthy people taking unilateral action, both to do a pivotal act and end the acute risk period, and more generally, to unleash a process that will inexorably optimize the world for Good.
I think you mean “the goal remains to ensure that CEV or something like it is eventually implemented, and the universe is thus optimized according to the resulting utility function”, right? I think Eliezer’s view has always been that we want a CEV-maximizing ASI to be eventually turned on, but if that happens, it wouldn’t matter which human turns it on. And then evidently Eliezer has pivoted over the decades from thinking that this is likeliest to happen if he tries to build such an ASI with his own hands, to no longer thinking that.
All of that sounds right to me. But this pivot with regards to means isn’t much evidence about what Eliezer/MIRI would do if they (as a magical hypothetical) suddenly found themselves with a verifiably-aligned CEV AGI.
I expect that they would turn it on, with the expectation that it would develop a hard power decisive strategic advantage, use that to end the acute risk period, and then proceed to optimize the universe.
Insofar as that’s true, I think Oliver’s statement above...
...is inaccurate.
MIRI has never said, to my knowledge,
The Singularity Institute used to have the plan of building and deploying a friendly AI, which they expected to “optimize” the whole world.
Eliezer’s writing includes lots of point in which he at least hints (some would say more than hints), that he thinks that it is morally obligatory or at least virtuous, to take over the world for the side of Good.
Famously, Harry says “World Domination is such an ugly phrase. I prefer world optimization.” (We made t-shirts of this phrase!)
The Sword of Good ends with the line
“‘I don’t trust you either,’ Hirou whispered, ‘but I don’t expect there’s anyone better,’ and he closed his eyes until the end of the world.” He’s concluded that all the evil in the world must be opposed, that it’s right for someone to cast the “spell of ultimate power” to do that.
(This is made a bit murky, because Eliezer’s writings usually focus on the transhumanist conquest of the evils of nature, rather than political triumph over human-evil. But triumph over the human-evils is definitely included eg the moral importance and urgency of destroying Azkaban, in HP:MoR.)
From all that, I think it is reasonable to think that MIRI is in favor of taking over the world, if they could get the power to do it!
So it seems disingenuous, to me, to say,
I agree that
MIRI’s leadership doesn’t care who implements a CEV AI, as long as they do it correctly.
(Though this is not as clearly non-powerseeking, if you rephrase it as “MIRI leadership doesn’t care who implements the massively powerful AI, as long as they correctly align it to the values that MIRI leadership endorses.
For an outsider who doesn’t already trust the CEV process, this is about as reassuring as a communist group saying “we don’t care who implements the AI, as long as they properly align it to Marxist doctrine. I understand how CEV is more meta than that, how it is explicitly avoiding coding object level values into the AI. But not everyone will see it that way, especially if they think the output of CEV is contrary to their values (as indeed, virtually every existing group should.))
CEV as an optimization target is itself selected to be cosmopolitan and egalitarian. It’s as good faith attempt to optimize for the good of all. It does seem to me that the plan of “give a hard power advantage to this process, which we expect to implement the Good, itself”, is a step down in power-seeking from “give a hard power advantage to me, and I’ll do Good stuff.”
But it still seems to me that MIRI’s culture endorses sufficiently trustworthy people taking unilateral action, both to do a pivotal act and end the acute risk period, and more generally, to unleash a process that will inexorably optimize the world for Good.