I’m much more doubtful than most people around here about whether CEV coheres: I guess that the CEV of some humans wireheads themselves and the CEV of other humans doesn’t, for instance.
But I’m bracketing that concern for this discussion. Assuming CEV coheres, then yes I predict that it will have radical (in the sense of a political radical who’s beliefs are extremely outside of the overton window, such that they are disturbing to the median voter) views about all of those things.
But more confidently, I predict that it will have radical views about a very long list of things that are commonplace in 2024, even if it turns out that I’m wrong about this specific set.
CEV asks what would we want if we knew everything the AI knows. There are dozens of things that I think that I know, that if the average person knew to be true, would invalidate a lot of their ideology. Basic
If the average person knew everything that an AGI knows (which includes potentially millions of subjective years of human science, whole new fields, as foundational to one’s worldview as economics and probability theory is to my current worldview), and they had hundreds of subjective years to internalize those facts and domains, in a social context that was conducive to that, with (potentially) large increases in their intelligence, I expect their views are basically unrecognizable after a process like that.
As a case in point, most people consider it catastrophically bad to have their body destroyed (duh). And if you asked them if they would prefer, given their body being destroyed, to have their brain-state recorded, uploaded, and run on a computer, many would say “no”, because it seems horrifying to them.
Most LessWrongers embrace computationalism: they think that living as an upload is about as good as living as a squishy biological robot (and indeed, better in many respects). They would of course choose to be uploaded if their body was being destroyed. Many would elect to have their body destroyed specifically because they would prefer to be uploaded!
That is most LessWrongers think they know something which most people don’t know, but which, if they did know it, would radically alter their preferences and behavior.
I think a mature AGI knows at least thousands of things like that.
So among the things about CEV that I’m most confident about (again, granting that it coheres at all), is that CEV has extremely radical views, conclusions which are horrifying to most people, including probably myself.
I’m much more doubtful than most people around here about whether CEV coheres: I guess that the CEV of some humans wireheads themselves and the CEV of other humans doesn’t, for instance.
But I’m bracketing that concern for this discussion. Assuming CEV coheres, then yes I predict that it will have radical (in the sense of a political radical who’s beliefs are extremely outside of the overton window, such that they are disturbing to the median voter) views about all of those things.
But more confidently, I predict that it will have radical views about a very long list of things that are commonplace in 2024, even if it turns out that I’m wrong about this specific set.
CEV asks what would we want if we knew everything the AI knows. There are dozens of things that I think that I know, that if the average person knew to be true, would invalidate a lot of their ideology. Basic
If the average person knew everything that an AGI knows (which includes potentially millions of subjective years of human science, whole new fields, as foundational to one’s worldview as economics and probability theory is to my current worldview), and they had hundreds of subjective years to internalize those facts and domains, in a social context that was conducive to that, with (potentially) large increases in their intelligence, I expect their views are basically unrecognizable after a process like that.
As a case in point, most people consider it catastrophically bad to have their body destroyed (duh). And if you asked them if they would prefer, given their body being destroyed, to have their brain-state recorded, uploaded, and run on a computer, many would say “no”, because it seems horrifying to them.
Most LessWrongers embrace computationalism: they think that living as an upload is about as good as living as a squishy biological robot (and indeed, better in many respects). They would of course choose to be uploaded if their body was being destroyed. Many would elect to have their body destroyed specifically because they would prefer to be uploaded!
That is most LessWrongers think they know something which most people don’t know, but which, if they did know it, would radically alter their preferences and behavior.
I think a mature AGI knows at least thousands of things like that.
So among the things about CEV that I’m most confident about (again, granting that it coheres at all), is that CEV has extremely radical views, conclusions which are horrifying to most people, including probably myself.