I thought I read Ord give the 600 year figure, but maybe I’m mistaken. Anyway that would presumably be a correct extrapolation if we continue ‘business as usual’ - i.e. without taking steps that would reduce the risk. (Not least as the risks are otherwise increasing, due to e.g. it getting easier and easier to create deadly bioweapons.)
I don’t see anything wrong in using current population forecasts, since I don’t think anyone’s suggesting they would be far wrong AFAIK? Give or take a few billion. (Unless we leave earth and set up massive space colonies elsewhere, which I suppose could happen in a few centuries perhaps, but even then seems unlikely to produce very many billions more people that quickly.)
I thought I read Ord give the 600 year figure, but maybe I’m mistaken. Anyway that would presumably be a correct extrapolation if we continue ‘business as usual’ - i.e. without taking steps that would reduce the risk. (Not least as the risks are otherwise increasing, due to e.g. it getting easier and easier to create deadly bioweapons.)
I don’t see anything wrong in using current population forecasts, since I don’t think anyone’s suggesting they would be far wrong AFAIK? Give or take a few billion. (Unless we leave earth and set up massive space colonies elsewhere, which I suppose could happen in a few centuries perhaps, but even then seems unlikely to produce very many billions more people that quickly.)