We can even consider the proposed plan (add a 2nd hose and increase the price by $20) in the context of an actual company.
The proposed plan does not actually redesign the AC unit around the fact that we now have 2 hoses. It is “just” adding an additional hose.
Let’s assume that the distribution of AC unit cooling effectively looks something like this graphic that I made in 3 seconds.
In this image, we are choosing to assume that yes, in fact, 2-hose units are more efficient on average than a 1-hose unit. We are also recognizing that perhaps there is some overlap. Perhaps there are especially bad 2-hose units, and especially good 1-hose units.
Based on all of the evidence, I’m going to say that the average 1-hose unit does represent the minimum efficiency needed for cooling in an average consumer’s use-case—i.e. it is sufficient for their needs.
When I consider what would make a 2-hose unit good or bad, I suspect it has a lot to do with how much of the design is built around the fact that there are 2-hoses.
In your proposal, we simply add a 2nd hose to a unit that was otherwise designed functionally as a 1-hose unit. Let’s consider where that might be plotted on this graph.
I’m going to claim based on vague engineering intuition / judgment / experience that it goes right here.
If I am right about where this proposal falls against the competition, then here’s what we’ve done:
This is not a 1-hose unit any more. Despite it being more efficient than the average 1-hose units, and only slightly more expensive, consumers looking at 1-hose units (because they are concerned about cost) will not see this model. The argument that it is “only $20 more expensive” is irrelevant. Their search results are filtered, they read online that they wanted a one-hose unit, this product has been removed from their consideration.
This is a bad 2-hose unit. It is at the bottom of the efficiency scale, because other 2-hose units were actually designed to take full advantage of the 2-hoses. They will beat you on efficiency, even if they cost more. Wirecutter will list this in the “also ran” when discussing 2-hose units, “So and so sells a 2-hose model, but it was barely more efficient than a 1-hose, we cannot recommend it”.
A consumer looking at 2-hose units is already selecting for efficiency over cost, so they will not buy the “just add another hose” 2-hose unit, since it is on the wrong end of the 2-hose distribution.
You will acquire a reputation as the company that sells “cheap” products—your unit is cheaper than other 2-hose units, but isn’t better because it wasn’t designed as a 2-hose unit, and it was torn apart by reviewers.
Fixing this inefficiency requires actually designing around 2-hoses, which likely results in something like this
“Minimum viable”, in the context of a “minimum viable product” or MVP, is a term in engineering that represents the minimal thing that a consumer will pay to acquire. This is a product that can actually be sold. It’s not the literal worst in its category, and it has a clear supremacy over cheaper categories. This is also called table stakes. Reviewers will consider it fairly, consumers will not rage review it, etc.
However, it’s probably also a lot more expensive than the hypothetical “only $20 more” that has been repeatedly stated.
Even in the scenario where a reviewer does consider the “just add another hose” model when viewing one-hose units, we’ve already established that the one-hose unit is cheaper (by $20! if it’s a $200 unit, that’s 10%), and that the average 1-hose unit is sufficient for some average use-case. Therefore the rational consumer choice is to buy the cheaper one-hose anyway, because it’s irrational to pay more for efficiency that isn’t needed![1][2]
The exception here is some hypothetical consumer who knows, for a fact, that their unique situation requires a two-hose unit, e.g. they tried a one-hose unit already and it was insufficient.
There’s also an argument here that a rational option is to buy a 1-hose unit, and then if you need slightly more efficiency, just buy & wrap the 1-hose with insulation, as described here. This allows the consumer to purchase at the lower price point and then add efficiency if needed for the cost of the insulation. It’s unclear to me that the “just add another hose” AC would still perform better than an insulated 1-hose.
As a concrete example of rational one-hosing, here in the Netherlands it rarely gets hot enough that ACs are necessary, but when it does a bunch of elderly people die of heat stroke. Thus, ACs are expected to run only several days per year (so efficiency concerns are negligible), but having one can save your life.
I checked the biggest Dutch-only consumer-facing online retailer for various goods (bol.com). Unfortunately I looked before making a prediction for how many one-hose vs two-hose models they sell, but even conditional on me choosing to make a point of this, it still seems like it could be useful for readers to make a prediction at this point. Out of 694 models of air conditioner labeled as either one-hose or two-hose,
3
are two-hose.
This seems like strong evidence that the market successfully adapts to actual consumer needs where air conditioner hose count is concerned.
I must admit I was surprised by the statistics here. It is true if you only use the air conditioner few days a year, the energy efficiency is not important. However, the cooling capacity is important. I think many people are using efficiency to mean cooling capacity above. Anyway, let’s say the incremental cost of going from one hose to two hoses is $30. From working on Department of Energy energy efficiency rules, typically the marginal markup of an efficient product is less than the markup on the product overall (meaning that the incremental cost of just adding a hose is less than the $20 of buying it separately). It is true that with a smaller area for the air to come into the device with a hose, the velocity has to be higher, so the fan blades need to be made bigger (it typically is one motor powering two different fan blades on two sides, at least for window units). But then you could save money on the housing because the port is smaller. The incremental cost of motors is low. Then if the air conditioner cost $200 to start with, that would be 15% incremental cost. Then let’s say the cooling capacity increased by 25% (I would say it actually does matter that a T-shirt was used, which would allow room area and instead of just outdoor air, so it probably would be higher than this). What this means is that the two hose actually has greater cooling capacity per dollar, so you should choose a small two hose even if you don’t care about energy use at all. Strictly this is only true with no economies of scale, which is not a great assumption. But I think overall it will hold. Another case this would break down is if a person were plugging and unplugging many times, but I don’t think that’s the typical person. So I suspect what is going on is that people don’t realize that the cooling capacity of the one hose is actually reduced more than the cost, so they should just be getting a smaller capacity two hose unit (at lower initial cost and energy cost).
There is a broader question here of whether there should be energy efficiency regulations. If people were perfectly rational and had perfect information, we would not need them. But not only are the incremental costs of energy efficiency regulations found to be economically beneficial by the US Department of Energy (basically a good return on investment), but a retrospective study found that the actual incremental cost of meeting the efficiency regulations was about an order of magnitude lower than predicted by the Department of Energy! So I think there’s a very strong case for energy efficiency regulations.
For that one week of the year its very hot then any kind of air conditioner at all, even one with awful cooling power, is probably enough. If you can get a two-hose unit where the machinery is half the size of the 1-hose, and is proportionally cheaper then you should. But its worth remembering that the consumers know they are buying a piece of cheap junk: they intend to have it fan away at them for a week while they complain about how it never used to get this hot. Three years later there will be another heat wave, and (if they are anything like me) they will not be sure if they still have the air con they bought last time in their attic, or if they lost it in the house move. Or maybe it broke? So their is a very real chance that it is never being used again from 10 days after purchase: and the buyer knows that.
We can even consider the proposed plan (add a 2nd hose and increase the price by $20) in the context of an actual company.
The proposed plan does not actually redesign the AC unit around the fact that we now have 2 hoses. It is “just” adding an additional hose.
Let’s assume that the distribution of AC unit cooling effectively looks something like this graphic that I made in 3 seconds.
In this image, we are choosing to assume that yes, in fact, 2-hose units are more efficient on average than a 1-hose unit. We are also recognizing that perhaps there is some overlap. Perhaps there are especially bad 2-hose units, and especially good 1-hose units.
Based on all of the evidence, I’m going to say that the average 1-hose unit does represent the minimum efficiency needed for cooling in an average consumer’s use-case—i.e. it is sufficient for their needs.
When I consider what would make a 2-hose unit good or bad, I suspect it has a lot to do with how much of the design is built around the fact that there are 2-hoses.
In your proposal, we simply add a 2nd hose to a unit that was otherwise designed functionally as a 1-hose unit. Let’s consider where that might be plotted on this graph.
I’m going to claim based on vague engineering intuition / judgment / experience that it goes right here.
If I am right about where this proposal falls against the competition, then here’s what we’ve done:
This is not a 1-hose unit any more. Despite it being more efficient than the average 1-hose units, and only slightly more expensive, consumers looking at 1-hose units (because they are concerned about cost) will not see this model. The argument that it is “only $20 more expensive” is irrelevant. Their search results are filtered, they read online that they wanted a one-hose unit, this product has been removed from their consideration.
This is a bad 2-hose unit. It is at the bottom of the efficiency scale, because other 2-hose units were actually designed to take full advantage of the 2-hoses. They will beat you on efficiency, even if they cost more. Wirecutter will list this in the “also ran” when discussing 2-hose units, “So and so sells a 2-hose model, but it was barely more efficient than a 1-hose, we cannot recommend it”.
A consumer looking at 2-hose units is already selecting for efficiency over cost, so they will not buy the “just add another hose” 2-hose unit, since it is on the wrong end of the 2-hose distribution.
You will acquire a reputation as the company that sells “cheap” products—your unit is cheaper than other 2-hose units, but isn’t better because it wasn’t designed as a 2-hose unit, and it was torn apart by reviewers.
Fixing this inefficiency requires actually designing around 2-hoses, which likely results in something like this
“Minimum viable”, in the context of a “minimum viable product” or MVP, is a term in engineering that represents the minimal thing that a consumer will pay to acquire. This is a product that can actually be sold. It’s not the literal worst in its category, and it has a clear supremacy over cheaper categories. This is also called table stakes. Reviewers will consider it fairly, consumers will not rage review it, etc.
However, it’s probably also a lot more expensive than the hypothetical “only $20 more” that has been repeatedly stated.
Even in the scenario where a reviewer does consider the “just add another hose” model when viewing one-hose units, we’ve already established that the one-hose unit is cheaper (by $20! if it’s a $200 unit, that’s 10%), and that the average 1-hose unit is sufficient for some average use-case. Therefore the rational consumer choice is to buy the cheaper one-hose anyway, because it’s irrational to pay more for efficiency that isn’t needed![1][2]
The exception here is some hypothetical consumer who knows, for a fact, that their unique situation requires a two-hose unit, e.g. they tried a one-hose unit already and it was insufficient.
There’s also an argument here that a rational option is to buy a 1-hose unit, and then if you need slightly more efficiency, just buy & wrap the 1-hose with insulation, as described here. This allows the consumer to purchase at the lower price point and then add efficiency if needed for the cost of the insulation. It’s unclear to me that the “just add another hose” AC would still perform better than an insulated 1-hose.
As a concrete example of rational one-hosing, here in the Netherlands it rarely gets hot enough that ACs are necessary, but when it does a bunch of elderly people die of heat stroke. Thus, ACs are expected to run only several days per year (so efficiency concerns are negligible), but having one can save your life.
I checked the biggest Dutch-only consumer-facing online retailer for various goods (bol.com). Unfortunately I looked before making a prediction for how many one-hose vs two-hose models they sell, but even conditional on me choosing to make a point of this, it still seems like it could be useful for readers to make a prediction at this point. Out of 694 models of air conditioner labeled as either one-hose or two-hose,
3
are two-hose.
This seems like strong evidence that the market successfully adapts to actual consumer needs where air conditioner hose count is concerned.
I must admit I was surprised by the statistics here. It is true if you only use the air conditioner few days a year, the energy efficiency is not important. However, the cooling capacity is important. I think many people are using efficiency to mean cooling capacity above. Anyway, let’s say the incremental cost of going from one hose to two hoses is $30. From working on Department of Energy energy efficiency rules, typically the marginal markup of an efficient product is less than the markup on the product overall (meaning that the incremental cost of just adding a hose is less than the $20 of buying it separately). It is true that with a smaller area for the air to come into the device with a hose, the velocity has to be higher, so the fan blades need to be made bigger (it typically is one motor powering two different fan blades on two sides, at least for window units). But then you could save money on the housing because the port is smaller. The incremental cost of motors is low. Then if the air conditioner cost $200 to start with, that would be 15% incremental cost. Then let’s say the cooling capacity increased by 25% (I would say it actually does matter that a T-shirt was used, which would allow room area and instead of just outdoor air, so it probably would be higher than this). What this means is that the two hose actually has greater cooling capacity per dollar, so you should choose a small two hose even if you don’t care about energy use at all. Strictly this is only true with no economies of scale, which is not a great assumption. But I think overall it will hold. Another case this would break down is if a person were plugging and unplugging many times, but I don’t think that’s the typical person. So I suspect what is going on is that people don’t realize that the cooling capacity of the one hose is actually reduced more than the cost, so they should just be getting a smaller capacity two hose unit (at lower initial cost and energy cost).
There is a broader question here of whether there should be energy efficiency regulations. If people were perfectly rational and had perfect information, we would not need them. But not only are the incremental costs of energy efficiency regulations found to be economically beneficial by the US Department of Energy (basically a good return on investment), but a retrospective study found that the actual incremental cost of meeting the efficiency regulations was about an order of magnitude lower than predicted by the Department of Energy! So I think there’s a very strong case for energy efficiency regulations.
“has greater cooling capacity per dollar”
For that one week of the year its very hot then any kind of air conditioner at all, even one with awful cooling power, is probably enough. If you can get a two-hose unit where the machinery is half the size of the 1-hose, and is proportionally cheaper then you should. But its worth remembering that the consumers know they are buying a piece of cheap junk: they intend to have it fan away at them for a week while they complain about how it never used to get this hot. Three years later there will be another heat wave, and (if they are anything like me) they will not be sure if they still have the air con they bought last time in their attic, or if they lost it in the house move. Or maybe it broke? So their is a very real chance that it is never being used again from 10 days after purchase: and the buyer knows that.
This is a great comment. The graphs helped a lot.