What’s do you think is wrong? I don’t see any contradictions here.
Are you confused about who I’m saying is getting dutch booked? I’m saying pledgers dutchbook themselves, the project will be more than fine, it would be extremely good for the project. It seems like a very good mechanism from the project’s perspective, and I approve of it.
I see how that can be misleading. I’ll try to clarify it. The reason it ended up looking like that was that “kickstarter with refund bonuses added” is, as he acknowledges, a really good way of describing it, even though it was not a product of taking kickstarter and adding refund bonuses.
Alex Tabarrok proposed improving crowdfunding mechanisms with Refund Bonuses. I think this might be a natural occurrence of a dutch book against Causal Decision Theory
I also removed these sections which I kind of left in by accident and had already decided at the time of posting that I couldn’t really stand behind. Sorry about those. Could be true, but I think I was probably understating the value of the credible signal that is sent by having refund bonuses, even for a LDT agent.
As a Logical Decision Theory (LDT) sort of decisionmaker, wow, I think that might all be predicated on a level of cynicism that I have difficulty relating to. When I’m considering a crowdfunding project, I’ll generally infer the existence of a group of faithful, likeminded actors whose decisions are entangled with mine, who would be happy to investigate and promote the project while it is small, knowing that many others will tacitly move along in train with them, and if that group was big enough that the project might succeed, we would go ahead and investigate and promote the project, and that would usually be enough, I think.
Causal Decision Theorists (CDT) floating around, who can’t coordinate like that, or — more charitably — maybe there are people who just can’t accurately infer the size of their good faith entangled cohort very well, and they underestimate it, so they can’t justify adhering. And maybe we need them on board. For them, Refund Bonuses excites me.
What’s do you think is wrong? I don’t see any contradictions here.
Are you confused about who I’m saying is getting dutch booked? I’m saying pledgers dutchbook themselves, the project will be more than fine, it would be extremely good for the project. It seems like a very good mechanism from the project’s perspective, and I approve of it.
“Alex Tabarrok proposed improving crowdfunding mechanisms with Refund Bonuses.”
The proposal predates kickstarter.
I see how that can be misleading. I’ll try to clarify it. The reason it ended up looking like that was that “kickstarter with refund bonuses added” is, as he acknowledges, a really good way of describing it, even though it was not a product of taking kickstarter and adding refund bonuses.
For posterity, the original title was
I also removed these sections which I kind of left in by accident and had already decided at the time of posting that I couldn’t really stand behind. Sorry about those.
Could be true, but I think I was probably understating the value of the credible signal that is sent by having refund bonuses, even for a LDT agent.