I’ve noticed most LWers who bother to speak on the matter predict with high confidence a Republican win, whereas I don’t see that anywhere in the realm of possibility this year. By contrast, RationalWiki is all for Sanders, it seems.
I’ve noticed most LWers who bother to speak on the matter predict with high confidence a Republican win, whereas I don’t see that anywhere in the realm of possibility this year.
From predictionbook data I don’t get that impression.
LWers who bother to speak on the matter predict with high confidence a Republican win
A few examples? I’ve seen references to betting market odds, but nobody predicting any outcome with anywhere near high confidence (say, 70%+). Maybe I’m just not invited to those threads :)
Sanders vs. Trump.
I’ve noticed most LWers who bother to speak on the matter predict with high confidence a Republican win, whereas I don’t see that anywhere in the realm of possibility this year. By contrast, RationalWiki is all for Sanders, it seems.
I suspect this is mostly a matter of who has bothered to speak on the matter.
(I’m outside the US and not watching closely, but FWIW I think more likely Democrat.)
Odd since most prediction markets have a 60⁄40 split in favor of a Democrat winning the US presidency.
E.g., https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres16_Quotes.html
The polls have Sanders ahead in this particular matchup …
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-5565.html
Yes, I’ve mostly seen a Democrat favored. I bet two bitcoin on Hilary a year ago based on FiveThirtyEight’s posts.
From predictionbook data I don’t get that impression.
A few examples? I’ve seen references to betting market odds, but nobody predicting any outcome with anywhere near high confidence (say, 70%+). Maybe I’m just not invited to those threads :)
You seem to be conflating who someone expects to win with who he is supporting.
Probably contrarianism talking—both here and on RationalWiki, actually. I wouldn’t take it too seriously.