A technological plateau is strictly necessary. To give the simplest example; we lucked out on nukes. The next decade alone contains potential for several existential threats—readily made bioweapons, miniaturized drones, AI abuse—that I question our ability to consistently adapt too, particularly one after another.
We might get it, if our tech jumps thanks to exponential progress.
No, it is definitely not a strictly necessary requirement for near-term survival. To be “strictly necessary for near-term survival”, such future technologies would have to be guaranteed to kill all of humanity, and soon. That’s ridiculous hyperbole.
There are risks ahead, even existential risks, from other non-AI technologies but not to nearly that extent.
We’re very good at generating existential risks. Given indefinite technological progression at our current pace, we are likely to get ourselves killed.
Your post—and my comment—are explicitly about necessary requirements for near-term survival. If you want to make another post about indefinite-term existential risks, then we can talk about that.
A technological plateau is strictly necessary. To give the simplest example; we lucked out on nukes. The next decade alone contains potential for several existential threats—readily made bioweapons, miniaturized drones, AI abuse—that I question our ability to consistently adapt too, particularly one after another.
We might get it, if our tech jumps thanks to exponential progress.
No, it is definitely not a strictly necessary requirement for near-term survival. To be “strictly necessary for near-term survival”, such future technologies would have to be guaranteed to kill all of humanity, and soon. That’s ridiculous hyperbole.
There are risks ahead, even existential risks, from other non-AI technologies but not to nearly that extent.
We’re very good at generating existential risks. Given indefinite technological progression at our current pace, we are likely to get ourselves killed.
Your post—and my comment—are explicitly about necessary requirements for near-term survival. If you want to make another post about indefinite-term existential risks, then we can talk about that.