> (Though only if I think it actually was positive expected value, obviously—don’t reward people for bad bets and bad outcomes!)
Beware people with social anxieties who won’t send you a good bet because they think you might think it’s a bad bet. In my experience, this is more common than the simpler ‘won’t send you a good bet because it might fail’ form. (Then again, that’s anecdotal evidence.)
I suspect you’ll end up selection-biasing out a lot of marginally-positive bets if you do this. Which, admittedly, is better than selection-biasing out a lot of non-certain bets.
Interesting.
> (Though only if I think it actually was positive expected value, obviously—don’t reward people for bad bets and bad outcomes!)
Beware people with social anxieties who won’t send you a good bet because they think you might think it’s a bad bet. In my experience, this is more common than the simpler ‘won’t send you a good bet because it might fail’ form. (Then again, that’s anecdotal evidence.)
I suspect you’ll end up selection-biasing out a lot of marginally-positive bets if you do this. Which, admittedly, is better than selection-biasing out a lot of non-certain bets.