In many cases it is hard to tell whether something that had a bad outcome was actually a good bet.
You enthusiastically implemented a good-seeming plan, something went wrong, and a bad outcome resulted. Does it make sense to say ‘this was a good bet, I should be rewarded in spite of the bad outcome’? The correct response might instead be ‘actually plans that seem like good bets tend to lead to bad outcomes, I should be much less enthusiastic about doing that.’
I agree that this is a risk. But as I tried to address in the post, I think there are many cases where this is worth the risk. In particular, I think there’s a fairly large class of bets where I expect many bad outcomes before an occasional good outcome (eg going on dates, applying for jobs),
In many cases it is hard to tell whether something that had a bad outcome was actually a good bet.
You enthusiastically implemented a good-seeming plan, something went wrong, and a bad outcome resulted. Does it make sense to say ‘this was a good bet, I should be rewarded in spite of the bad outcome’? The correct response might instead be ‘actually plans that seem like good bets tend to lead to bad outcomes, I should be much less enthusiastic about doing that.’
I agree that this is a risk. But as I tried to address in the post, I think there are many cases where this is worth the risk. In particular, I think there’s a fairly large class of bets where I expect many bad outcomes before an occasional good outcome (eg going on dates, applying for jobs),