I’d be inclined to disagree with part 3 as well. If you are biased, your probability estimates are off. The fact that everyone’s probability estimates are off to at least some extent does not change the fact that yours are off.
I’d be inclined to disagree with part 3 as well. If you are biased, your probability estimates are off. The fact that everyone’s probability estimates are off to at least some extent does not change the fact that yours are off.
I don’t think Slifkin is talking there about wrong or right in the Bayesian sense. To translate that into a more Bayesian form it might be something like “Just because one is biased doesn’t mean that one’s probability estimate is drastically off” or something like that.
I’d be inclined to disagree with part 3 as well. If you are biased, your probability estimates are off. The fact that everyone’s probability estimates are off to at least some extent does not change the fact that yours are off.
I don’t think Slifkin is talking there about wrong or right in the Bayesian sense. To translate that into a more Bayesian form it might be something like “Just because one is biased doesn’t mean that one’s probability estimate is drastically off” or something like that.