I don’t really know how you incentivise people (seriously) in the non-real money prediction markets.
Non-money prediction markets have lots of difficulties to them:
How do you size your bet? (Ie knowing a probability vs “higher” or “lower” than market estimate
Difficult to arbitrage (ie share information between markets)
How do you show your conviction (this is 50% and I’m certain it’s a coin flip vs this is 50% because I don’t understand the question)
I don’t really know how you incentivise people (seriously) in the non-real money prediction markets.
Non-money prediction markets have lots of difficulties to them:
How do you size your bet? (Ie knowing a probability vs “higher” or “lower” than market estimate
Difficult to arbitrage (ie share information between markets)
How do you show your conviction (this is 50% and I’m certain it’s a coin flip vs this is 50% because I don’t understand the question)