Gave it shot on my phone (Android, Firefox). Works great! Fun and easy to experiment with. I feel like there are a few key paths missing, or perhaps the framing of the paths doesn’t quite line up with my understanding of the world.
With the options I was given, I get 8.9% extinction, 1.1% good, remainder ambivalent.
Personally, I think we have something like a 10% chance of extinction, 88% chance of utopia, and 2% chance of ambivalent.
At some point I think carefully about the differences between my model and yours and see if I can figure out what’s going differently.
Gave it shot on my phone (Android, Firefox). Works great! Fun and easy to experiment with. I feel like there are a few key paths missing, or perhaps the framing of the paths doesn’t quite line up with my understanding of the world.
With the options I was given, I get 8.9% extinction, 1.1% good, remainder ambivalent.
Personally, I think we have something like a 10% chance of extinction, 88% chance of utopia, and 2% chance of ambivalent.
At some point I think carefully about the differences between my model and yours and see if I can figure out what’s going differently.
https://swantescholz.github.io/aifutures/v4/v4.html?p=7i85i0i50i30i0i100i38i26i14i12i1i31i68i61i21i7i9i17i78i0