the level of faith in changing discourse among the ~30 people I’m thinking of when writing this post seems miscalibratedly low.
The discourse that you’re referring to seems likely to be being Goodharted, so it’s not a good proxy for whether institutions will make sane decisions about world-ending AI technology. A test that would distinguish these variables would be to make logical arguments on a point that’s not widely accepted. If the response is updating or logical counterargument, that’s promising; if the response is some form of dismissal, that’s evidence the underlying generators of non-logic-processing are still there.
(Agree again)
To add:
The discourse that you’re referring to seems likely to be being Goodharted, so it’s not a good proxy for whether institutions will make sane decisions about world-ending AI technology. A test that would distinguish these variables would be to make logical arguments on a point that’s not widely accepted. If the response is updating or logical counterargument, that’s promising; if the response is some form of dismissal, that’s evidence the underlying generators of non-logic-processing are still there.