I’m not sure how exactly this differs from the GiveWell blog post along the same lines? You seem to both be dealing with roughly the same problem (decision making under uncertainty), and reach the same conclusion (pay attention to the standard deviation, use Bayesian updates)
I did find your graph in the middle a rather useful illustration, but otherwise don’t feel like I’ve come away with anything really new...
I’m not sure how exactly this differs from the GiveWell blog post along the same lines? You seem to both be dealing with roughly the same problem (decision making under uncertainty), and reach the same conclusion (pay attention to the standard deviation, use Bayesian updates)
I did find your graph in the middle a rather useful illustration, but otherwise don’t feel like I’ve come away with anything really new...
Well, to start with, Luke has provided an actual mechanism for this mistake to occur by.