It’s a stupid question. It wouldn’t be too hard to give 10 methodologists this question, then tell them the side to support, and watch them all build great cases. Obviously that’s an assertion, I can’t imagine evidence then claim it proves me right :P, but I strongly suspect this would be true.
The question is so dumb. Even if they got rid of the business story-line, and abstracted it to pure statistics, it’s still stupid. What distribution characterizes it? If they got rid of the business, gave the data, AND gave info on the generative distribution, AND made it a numerical answer… Then I guess it’s a fair question, but at that point it’s just a pure stats question.
I think it’s not stupid. Often in real cases and applied rationality you don’t have cleanly cooked up priors and distributions. You only have data like the series above, and it’s up to you to draw conclusions. Success happens when you are modest in your suppositions and able to change idea based on future evidence.
It’s a stupid question. It wouldn’t be too hard to give 10 methodologists this question, then tell them the side to support, and watch them all build great cases. Obviously that’s an assertion, I can’t imagine evidence then claim it proves me right :P, but I strongly suspect this would be true.
The question is so dumb. Even if they got rid of the business story-line, and abstracted it to pure statistics, it’s still stupid. What distribution characterizes it? If they got rid of the business, gave the data, AND gave info on the generative distribution, AND made it a numerical answer… Then I guess it’s a fair question, but at that point it’s just a pure stats question.
I think it’s not stupid. Often in real cases and applied rationality you don’t have cleanly cooked up priors and distributions. You only have data like the series above, and it’s up to you to draw conclusions.
Success happens when you are modest in your suppositions and able to change idea based on future evidence.