Politics of the past did have some massive non-inevitable impacts on the present day. For example, if you believe Jesus existed and was crucified by Roman Prefect Pontius Pilate, then Pilate’s rule may have been responsible for the rise of Christianity, which led to the Catholic Church, Islam, the Protestant Reformation, religious wars in Europe, religious tolerance, parts of the Enlightenment, parts of the US constitution, the Holocaust, Israel-Palestine disputes, the 9/11 attacks, and countless other major parts of modern life. Even if you think these things only ultimately matter through their effects on extinction risk, they matter a fair amount for extinction risk.
Where this breaks down is whether these effects were predictable in advance (surely not). But it’s plausible there could be states of affairs today that are systematically more conducive to good outcomes than others.
In any event, even if you only want to address x-risk, it may be most effective to do so in the political arena.
Politics of the past did have some massive non-inevitable impacts on the present day. For example, if you believe Jesus existed and was crucified by Roman Prefect Pontius Pilate, then Pilate’s rule may have been responsible for the rise of Christianity, which led to the Catholic Church, Islam, the Protestant Reformation, religious wars in Europe, religious tolerance, parts of the Enlightenment, parts of the US constitution, the Holocaust, Israel-Palestine disputes, the 9/11 attacks, and countless other major parts of modern life. Even if you think these things only ultimately matter through their effects on extinction risk, they matter a fair amount for extinction risk.
Where this breaks down is whether these effects were predictable in advance (surely not). But it’s plausible there could be states of affairs today that are systematically more conducive to good outcomes than others.
In any event, even if you only want to address x-risk, it may be most effective to do so in the political arena.