“if they condition on a sufficiently long initial sequence of digits, they’ll assign high probability to the true distant digit.”
I might be missing something, but this seems to be wrong? If the distant digit is sufficiently distant to be not efficiently computable, then obviously the logical inductor will not be able to predict it. The whole idea of logical counterfactual mugging is considering questions which the agent cannot solve in advance.
“if they condition on a sufficiently long initial sequence of digits, they’ll assign high probability to the true distant digit.”
I might be missing something, but this seems to be wrong? If the distant digit is sufficiently distant to be not efficiently computable, then obviously the logical inductor will not be able to predict it. The whole idea of logical counterfactual mugging is considering questions which the agent cannot solve in advance.