I think there is a very high probability of AGI becoming a reality in less than 5 years. I am trying to figure out a good investment strategy given this prediction while keeping in mind that there is a good chance the prediction is wrong.
I am assuming AGI at first will require very expensive hardware (in the million dollar range) and thus be limited in its adoption due to high costs and processor supply shortages. The huge economic impacts will be delayed by two years or so until hardware production can be scaled up and costs lowered. During this time ASI will start developing but it will be slowed due to computational limits of the hardware and supply constraints.
1) Given the above assumptions what is a good investment strategy for the next 5 years? 2) Given AGI is developed in 5 years, in what ways are my secondary predictions wrong?
How to invest in expectation of AGI?
I think there is a very high probability of AGI becoming a reality in less than 5 years. I am trying to figure out a good investment strategy given this prediction while keeping in mind that there is a good chance the prediction is wrong.
I am assuming AGI at first will require very expensive hardware (in the million dollar range) and thus be limited in its adoption due to high costs and processor supply shortages. The huge economic impacts will be delayed by two years or so until hardware production can be scaled up and costs lowered. During this time ASI will start developing but it will be slowed due to computational limits of the hardware and supply constraints.
1) Given the above assumptions what is a good investment strategy for the next 5 years?
2) Given AGI is developed in 5 years, in what ways are my secondary predictions wrong?