Maybe the qualitative components of Bayes’ theorem are, in some sense, pretty basic. If I think about how I would teach the basic qualitative concepts encoded by Bayes’ theorem (which we both agree are useful), I can’t think of a better way than through directly teaching Bayes’ theorem. That is the sense in which I think Bayes’ theorem offers a helpful precisification of these more qualitative concepts: it imposes a useful pedagogical structure into which we can neatly fit such principles.
You claim that the increased precision afforded by Bayesianism means that people end up ignoring the bits that don’t apply to us, so Bayesianism doesn’t really help us out much. I agree that, insofar as we use the formal Bayesian framework, we are ignoring certain bits. But I think that, by highlighting which bits do not apply to us, we gain a better understanding of why certain parts of our reasoning may be good or bad. For example, it forces us to confront why we think making predictions is good (as Bob points out, it allows us to avoid post-hoc rationalisation). This, I think, usefully steers our attention towards more pragmatic questions concerning the role that prediction plays in our epistemic lives, and away from more metaphysical questions about (for example) the real grounds for thinking prediction is an Epistemic Virtue.
So I think we might disagree on the empirical claim of how well we can teach such concepts without reliance on anything like Bayesianism. Perhaps we also have differing answers to the question: ‘does engaging with the formal Bayesian framework usefully draw our attention towards parts of our epistemic lives that matter?’ Does that sound right to you?
Maybe the qualitative components of Bayes’ theorem are, in some sense, pretty basic. If I think about how I would teach the basic qualitative concepts encoded by Bayes’ theorem (which we both agree are useful), I can’t think of a better way than through directly teaching Bayes’ theorem. That is the sense in which I think Bayes’ theorem offers a helpful precisification of these more qualitative concepts: it imposes a useful pedagogical structure into which we can neatly fit such principles.
You claim that the increased precision afforded by Bayesianism means that people end up ignoring the bits that don’t apply to us, so Bayesianism doesn’t really help us out much. I agree that, insofar as we use the formal Bayesian framework, we are ignoring certain bits. But I think that, by highlighting which bits do not apply to us, we gain a better understanding of why certain parts of our reasoning may be good or bad. For example, it forces us to confront why we think making predictions is good (as Bob points out, it allows us to avoid post-hoc rationalisation). This, I think, usefully steers our attention towards more pragmatic questions concerning the role that prediction plays in our epistemic lives, and away from more metaphysical questions about (for example) the real grounds for thinking prediction is an Epistemic Virtue.
So I think we might disagree on the empirical claim of how well we can teach such concepts without reliance on anything like Bayesianism. Perhaps we also have differing answers to the question: ‘does engaging with the formal Bayesian framework usefully draw our attention towards parts of our epistemic lives that matter?’ Does that sound right to you?