Unless you believe distribution of damaging psychopaths is extremely fat tailed, lack of moderately successful ones puts a very tight bound on probability of extremely damaging psychopath.
All the “advanced biotech / nanotech / ai” is not going to happen like that. If it happens at all, it will give more power to large groups with enough capital to research and develop them, not to lone psychopaths.
All the “advanced biotech / nanotech / ai” is not going to happen like that. If it happens at all, it will give more power to large groups with enough capital to research and develop them, not to lone psychopaths.
I hope you’re right, and I also think that it is more likely than not. But you seem to be overly confident.
If we are speculating about the future it is probably wise to widen our confidence intervals...
Unless you believe distribution of damaging psychopaths is extremely fat tailed, lack of moderately successful ones puts a very tight bound on probability of extremely damaging psychopath.
All the “advanced biotech / nanotech / ai” is not going to happen like that. If it happens at all, it will give more power to large groups with enough capital to research and develop them, not to lone psychopaths.
I hope you’re right, and I also think that it is more likely than not. But you seem to be overly confident. If we are speculating about the future it is probably wise to widen our confidence intervals...