Now, the only point I do not understand yet is how the
expectations of the original AI researchers are a factor in
this. Do you have some reason to believe that their expectations
were too optimistic by a factor of about 10 (1970 vs 2100) rather
than some other number?
Now, the only point I do not understand yet is how the expectations of the original AI researchers are a factor in this
They are a factor because their opinions in 1956, before the data had been seen, form a basis for constructing a prior that was not causally affected by the data.
Thanks, that was indeed interesting.
Now, the only point I do not understand yet is how the expectations of the original AI researchers are a factor in this. Do you have some reason to believe that their expectations were too optimistic by a factor of about 10 (1970 vs 2100) rather than some other number?
They are a factor because their opinions in 1956, before the data had been seen, form a basis for constructing a prior that was not causally affected by the data.