I would be willing to follow a PB blog if it drew attention to things that are “good” to make predictions about, with testimonials from users. Don’t just encourage people to make predictions, write about why that’s a useful thing to do and the nuts and bolts of it.
I’ve been making private predictions about important work-related events, because I’d like to become better calibrated in this domain. At the moment, I suck at it.
Hm. I would like to be able to write about useful things to do with PB, but Matthew tells me I’m 1 of 4 (or less) regular users, so there aren’t many people to write such posts.
Further, my main goals with PB is to become more calibrated in general—which is almost impossible to give good examples for by its very generality—and as a record of my predictions and politics for the future which I can examine to see how I got wrong (entirely aside from how much I was over/underconfidence) which I also can’t give any good examples for within the next few years/decades.
So I don’t really know what I could do with your suggestions. (I do have a little project involving >100 anime-related predictions, but I don’t know how well that will work out.)
I would be willing to follow a PB blog if it drew attention to things that are “good” to make predictions about, with testimonials from users. Don’t just encourage people to make predictions, write about why that’s a useful thing to do and the nuts and bolts of it.
I’ve been making private predictions about important work-related events, because I’d like to become better calibrated in this domain. At the moment, I suck at it.
Hm. I would like to be able to write about useful things to do with PB, but Matthew tells me I’m 1 of 4 (or less) regular users, so there aren’t many people to write such posts.
Further, my main goals with PB is to become more calibrated in general—which is almost impossible to give good examples for by its very generality—and as a record of my predictions and politics for the future which I can examine to see how I got wrong (entirely aside from how much I was over/underconfidence) which I also can’t give any good examples for within the next few years/decades.
So I don’t really know what I could do with your suggestions. (I do have a little project involving >100 anime-related predictions, but I don’t know how well that will work out.)