Might also consider a 3a case: people use the information we have until now and start doing their own self-quarantining and other segregating activities. I know some of that will be views as racists or xenophobic or simply prejudiced but it will achieve much the same result. It also seems to be something of the way in which people dealt with such problems in the past—think of leper colonies and fear or outsider type reaction.
In that regard perhaps we get something of a bifrucated outcome. One set is of those not adjusting their behaviors (probably the same group everyone seems to point to as why western democracies could not impose the same lock-down as China did). This group will have an R0 greater than one, have more deaths and the spread will be the epidemic path. The other group will limit their interactions, control for contagion and generally produce a R0 < 1.
The relative proportions of those two attitudes in the general population will perhaps determine both the need to the government level actions as well as the over all impact observed in each country (and this probably scales globally too, to some extent seems to be playing out).
Might also consider a 3a case: people use the information we have until now and start doing their own self-quarantining and other segregating activities. I know some of that will be views as racists or xenophobic or simply prejudiced but it will achieve much the same result. It also seems to be something of the way in which people dealt with such problems in the past—think of leper colonies and fear or outsider type reaction.
In that regard perhaps we get something of a bifrucated outcome. One set is of those not adjusting their behaviors (probably the same group everyone seems to point to as why western democracies could not impose the same lock-down as China did). This group will have an R0 greater than one, have more deaths and the spread will be the epidemic path. The other group will limit their interactions, control for contagion and generally produce a R0 < 1.
The relative proportions of those two attitudes in the general population will perhaps determine both the need to the government level actions as well as the over all impact observed in each country (and this probably scales globally too, to some extent seems to be playing out).