Current reports on the infectiousness and/or mortality of this coronavirus are exaggerated and total damage will not be as high as expected.
I can’t help but see strong similarities to the Swine Flu (H1N1) pandemic/scare of 2009 which ended up not causing any more yearly deaths than seasonal influenza. The biggest similarity I see is extensive media reporting and third-party analysis of very little factual first-hand information. The Health and Human Services whistleblower is reported on 5x more so than what the information they are providing deserves. There is boundless speculation and analysis on mortality from the same or slightly different set of facts and every new % chance of dying is reported on as if it’s a whole new story.
The ambiguous info about coronavirus perfectly lends itself to the type of media overhype that has become so prevalent in the years since Swine Flu played its course.
ETA: I should make clear, 2019 coronavirus will likely cause damage on a worse scale than Swine Flu did. This is the most likely saving throw, but it is not more likely than not to be correct.
Might be interesting to look at information that was available at the start of H1N1 and how accurate it turned out to be in retrospect (though there’s no guarantee that we’d make errors in the same direction this time around).
I think the most plausible saving throw is
Current reports on the infectiousness and/or mortality of this coronavirus are exaggerated and total damage will not be as high as expected.
I can’t help but see strong similarities to the Swine Flu (H1N1) pandemic/scare of 2009 which ended up not causing any more yearly deaths than seasonal influenza. The biggest similarity I see is extensive media reporting and third-party analysis of very little factual first-hand information. The Health and Human Services whistleblower is reported on 5x more so than what the information they are providing deserves. There is boundless speculation and analysis on mortality from the same or slightly different set of facts and every new % chance of dying is reported on as if it’s a whole new story.
The ambiguous info about coronavirus perfectly lends itself to the type of media overhype that has become so prevalent in the years since Swine Flu played its course.
ETA: I should make clear, 2019 coronavirus will likely cause damage on a worse scale than Swine Flu did. This is the most likely saving throw, but it is not more likely than not to be correct.
Might be interesting to look at information that was available at the start of H1N1 and how accurate it turned out to be in retrospect (though there’s no guarantee that we’d make errors in the same direction this time around).