I would have suggested broadening your questions to include the possibility that >10% are infected but it’s still not a big deal. Then my ideas would be things like: a less virulent strain is the one that becomes widespread; or maybe the same strain but it’s less virulent in most people (or less transmissive) compared to the groups that have been studied so far (air quality, smoking or other behavioral quirks, genetic quirks, locally prevalent diseases of previous years, etc.). Antivirals or some other miracle cure make it easy to treat at scale and at home. Lots of people are immune altogether, maybe because they caught a particular cold a decade ago, or just random genetic reasons, etc. (There’s also the possibility that COVID-19 is just plain less virulent than the statistics suggest, even in Wuhan, due to mild cases not being detected. But AFAICT there is pretty good evidence that this is not the case.) Plus what you said. There should be data to rule some of these in or out, but I don’t have time to figure it out.
I would have suggested broadening your questions to include the possibility that >10% are infected but it’s still not a big deal. Then my ideas would be things like: a less virulent strain is the one that becomes widespread; or maybe the same strain but it’s less virulent in most people (or less transmissive) compared to the groups that have been studied so far (air quality, smoking or other behavioral quirks, genetic quirks, locally prevalent diseases of previous years, etc.). Antivirals or some other miracle cure make it easy to treat at scale and at home. Lots of people are immune altogether, maybe because they caught a particular cold a decade ago, or just random genetic reasons, etc. (There’s also the possibility that COVID-19 is just plain less virulent than the statistics suggest, even in Wuhan, due to mild cases not being detected. But AFAICT there is pretty good evidence that this is not the case.) Plus what you said. There should be data to rule some of these in or out, but I don’t have time to figure it out.