More specifically, XiXiDu’s whole point was “how do I evaluate this if, instead of addressing the arguments behind it, I talk about who believes it and who doesn’t?” If that’s the argument, it’s fair enough for Eliezer to ask them to assess the rationality of the people whose opinions are being weighed.
More specifically my point regarding other peoples beliefs was that there are people who know about the topic of superhuman AI and related risks but, judged by their less or non-existing campaigns to prevent the risks, came to different conclusions.
In the case of other people like Marvin Minsky and other AI researchers, amongst others, the knowledge of possible risks should be reasonable to infer from their overall knowledge of the topic.
EY was showing that there are many very smart people that can’t even evaluate the MWI hypothesis.
Many scientists disregard speculations concerning the interpretation of quantum mechanics. This is due to the fact that it does not bear additional predictions, i.e. is not subject to empirical criticism.
EY wasn’t arguing “My IQ is so damn high that I just have to be right.
More specifically, XiXiDu’s whole point was “how do I evaluate this if, instead of addressing the arguments behind it, I talk about who believes it and who doesn’t?” If that’s the argument, it’s fair enough for Eliezer to ask them to assess the rationality of the people whose opinions are being weighed.
More specifically my point regarding other peoples beliefs was that there are people who know about the topic of superhuman AI and related risks but, judged by their less or non-existing campaigns to prevent the risks, came to different conclusions.
Reference: The Singularity: An Appraisal (Video) - Alastair Reynolds, Vernor Vinge, Charles Stross, Karl Schroeder
In the case of other people like Marvin Minsky and other AI researchers, amongst others, the knowledge of possible risks should be reasonable to infer from their overall knowledge of the topic.
Many scientists disregard speculations concerning the interpretation of quantum mechanics. This is due to the fact that it does not bear additional predictions, i.e. is not subject to empirical criticism.
I disagree based on the following evidence:
http://xixidu.net/lw/05.png “At present I do not know of any other person who could do that.” (Reference)
Hypothesis based on shaky conclusions, not on previous evidence.