I would imagine it’s also about: not having such an explanation right now, but being confident you will have one soon. For an extreme case with high confidence: I see a ‘proof’ that 1=2. I may be confident that there is at least 1 mistake in the proof before I find it. With less confidence, I may guess that the error is ‘dividng by zero’ before I see it.
Improvements to subjective well being can be extremely legible from the inside and fairly noisy from the outside.
Fair enough, that’s true. To be clear, then—is that all this is about? “Improvements to subjective well being”?
I would imagine it’s also about: not having such an explanation right now, but being confident you will have one soon. For an extreme case with high confidence: I see a ‘proof’ that 1=2. I may be confident that there is at least 1 mistake in the proof before I find it. With less confidence, I may guess that the error is ‘dividng by zero’ before I see it.