Well, one has to distinguish between purely rational being that has full set of possible propositions with correct probabilities assigned to them, and a bounded agent which has a partial set of possible propositions, generated gradually by exploring starting from some of the most probable propositions; the latter can’t even do Bayesian statistics properly due to the complex non-linear feedback via proposition generation process, and is not omniscient enough to foresee as well as your argument requires.
Well, one has to distinguish between purely rational being that has full set of possible propositions with correct probabilities assigned to them, and a bounded agent which has a partial set of possible propositions, generated gradually by exploring starting from some of the most probable propositions; the latter can’t even do Bayesian statistics properly due to the complex non-linear feedback via proposition generation process, and is not omniscient enough to foresee as well as your argument requires.